I just read a post that Fox cancelled Drive, another serial drama in the vein of 24, Lost, and Prison Break.
Each season television networks try shows air shows like Drive to see what kinds of ratings they get. If they get good ratings, they are renewed. If not, they are cancelled.
There is an obvious logic to this: why would a television network broadcast a show that nobody watches?
It seems like in recent years, however, television networks launch shows like Drive, only to yank them a few weeks later. The problem with this is that it habituates viewers to expect that a new show might get pulled from the air without warning. Since people who watch television shows get invested in them (ask any Sopranos fan whether they are on edge to see whether or not Tony gets whacked this season), if they suspect a new show might get randomly yanked, they won't give it a shot. Would you?
An alternative model for debuting new shows is the "special series" approach in which the network essentially makes a deal with its audience: we'll guarantee X number of episodes. If the show is popular, we'll renew it. That approach is how the game show Identity was launched. I think it is also how NBC launched Heroes. As a viewer, you're willing to watch the introductory episodes because you know there is no guarantee beyond X number of episodes. Your expectations are appropriately calibrated. No guarantees on a seven season run, but you also know that it wouldn't get pulled in the middle of a story arc, like Drive. I also think that Lost was launched using this approach.
I wasn't particularly interested in Drive, but I was interested in another Fox show, Standoff. But since I got burned a few years ago by enjoying the NBC shows Mr. Sterling and Conviction only to have them cancelled, I don't watch any new series until they've been renewed for at least one season (although I did watch a couple of the initial episodes of Identity, hosted by Penn Jillette). I can then watch season one via DVD.
(The TV shows I regularly watch -- all via DVR -- are: 24, Sopranos, Entourage, Penn & Teller's Bullshit!, The Daily Show, Real Time with Bill Maher, NFL Live, NBC Nightly News, and the Sunday morning news shows.)
We are heading towards a media ecosystem in which broadcast networks are really only valuable for live news and sports. Between now and then, television will face steadily increasing competition from packaged and downloadable media. During these final years of the dominance of "prime time programming", television networks need to do a better job of understanding the psychology of how their viewers make decisions to invest time in new shows.
© Jed Lewison