I recently started playing poker tournaments around Vegas again. So far, no success, but it goes that way sometimes. The thing that's been bothering me is that I haven't been playing my best, but I suppose that's not all that unusual after taking several months away from tournaments.
Tonight, I finally played a good tournament, start to finish. Unfortunately, luck wasn't on my side -- I flopped two pair three times and lost each time.
The first hand that I lost I could have lost a little bit less. I was in the big blind with 94o, and there was one limper. The blinds were 50-100 and I had about 4350. The flop came down Q94 rainbow. I bet 200 into the pot and the limper called. It was sort of spookie because we had both just had a conversation where we joked around that I should check and fold to him on the next time we're heads up on the turn because he'll probably suck out on me. Sure enough, the turn is the K, a horrible card. I don't think he had KQ because this player would have raised me on the flop with that hand (as he would have with a set or a K9/K4. I put him on JT, so I checked to him. He bet 300 and I called, hoping to fill up and win a big pot (he had me covered). Plus there was a chance he was bluffing, albeit pretty slim, or maybe betting KT or KJ and thinking it was good (a little more likely). Anyway, the river was an 2, no flush possible, I checked, he bet 500, and I was sure he had JT. So like a donkey I called, and sure enough, he had turned the nuts. I should have saved that last 500.
Towards the end of the 50-100 level, a really shitty hand came up. I had 5100 to start the hand and my opponent had about 3450. I limped in the cutoff with 6d5d after three limpers. The flop comes down Q65 and the villain bets 400. It's folded to me and there's three players between me and the bettor. (The blinds and an UTG limper.) I figure that he has a queen; he likely would have raised preflop with QQ and if he happens to have 55 or 66 (kind of unlikely since I have 6d5d), then so be it. So I just call, figuring that I'll wait to make a move on the turn; I'm risking the blinds having a draw, but I doubt UTG limped in with a straight draw. Anyway, they all fold so it's me and the villain to the turn. The turn is a 7, not the greatest card in the world since it completes a straight, but if my read is correct and all he has is a queen, then it's actually a wonderful card because unless he's got Q7 I'm in good shape. (Q8 and Q9 are drawing pretty live, too.) The villain bets 800, leaving himself with 2150. There's now 2100 in the pot. I made it 2000 to go, which is probably a bit small of a raise, but I know he's not going to just call -- he's going to push or fold. I don't mind having him push, and if I push it's going to be harder for him to call. I know it doesn't make sense logically, because it's clear that I'm not folding if he pushes, but he doesn't know that -- this is where psychology comes in. Anyway, he agonizes for a couple of minutes and finally says he's not going to play like a girl and pushes all-in. I call and he has QT. Yikes! I figured he must have had AQ or KQ. QT? What a shitty call. He's actually lucky I have bottom two. He's drawing dead against a set or a straight, and nearly dead against a bigger queen. Anyway, the river brings a 7, counterfeiting my two pair, and he wins the pot, hooting and hollering like those snots you see on ESPN during the early rounds of the WSOP. I was polite to him, but when he once again said he wasn't going to play like a little girl, I told him that I agreed with him, that a woman would not have made that call. Of course, what I meant was that a woman wouldn't have been as dumb as he was, but there you have it. So instead of having almost 9,000 in chips, I have barely over 1,500.
I then played very tight poker and managed to survive all the way to the middle of the 100-200 with 25 ante level (about 45 minutes). I never got above 1,700. Finally, I pushed UTG with KQo. The push was about 1,600. All fold to the big blind who I had been chatting with throughout the tournament. He starts apologizing to me, saying that he likes me, but that he has a good hand. I know his hand range isn't that great, so I'm not too scared, and I need to double up soon anyway, so I tell him not to worry, I won't be offended if he calls. Well, he flips up QJ. Yeeha! I'm a 3:1 favorite. The flop comes down KQJ, so he's got two outs, and I've got a redraw against them. Basically, I'm an 11:1 favorite (we chop about 3%). Of course, the turn is a J, and I brick out on the river, so I shake the guy's hand and head back home.
But in general I played a nice tournament. I was patient with my short stack and got it in with a great chance to double up and get back into the tournament. I shouldn't have paid off with my first two pair, and some people could argue I should have pushed on my second two pair.
I guess the way I look at the second hand is like this:
If I push, he does probably fold hands like KQ, QJ, QT. But he'll still call with sets and straights. So pushing probably won't get me a call from hands that I beat.
If I know what he has, should I push, and just win the pot right there? I'm nearly 100% sure when I raised that he wouldn't just call, that it was push or fold for him, so let's assume that I'm correct in that read for this analysis.
Basically, I'm an 82% favorite to win the pot, 4.5:1 or so. If I push, I know he'll fold. So the question is do I want to to risk 2150 to win 2150 more, given that the pot is already a decent size. I'd take down about 2,100 by pushing. If I just raise and let him hang himself, effectively I'm offering him the following deal: if you bet 2,150, you could win the 4,050. He's not getting anywhere near the right odds, and 2,000 is a substantial bump in my stack size, so I think it's worth the gamble, even though I'll be crippled 18% of the time.
Enough bellyaching though! In the past, I've noticed that when I've finally had a tournament where I think I made pretty good decisions throughout, that I'm better positioned to take advantage of the lucky streak when it finally comes.
© Jed Lewison