Posted by Jed Lewison on Tue Jun 26, 2007 at 4:33 PM Pacific

Bring Junior Back

In today's Seattle Times, Larry Stone offers an apology:

Sorry to be a party pooper, but as rousing as the Griffey homecoming was, and as much as Griffey has meant to this organization, the M's need to evaluate their upcoming personnel moves divorced from the emotional tugs of a magical weekend.

He goes on to argue, without offering much evidence, that what the Mariners need is another pitcher, not another hitter. Here's the evidence he offers:

Heading into Monday's game against Boston, the Mariners had produced 5.01 runs per game. The mighty Red Sox, percolating along with baseball's best record, had scored 5.05 runs per game, a barely perceptible difference.

That's really not a great argument. First of all, the Mariners are primarily chasing a wild card spot, and certainly not the top spot in the AL East. As we learned in 2001, you need a team set up for the playoffs, not just the regular season. To succeed in the playoffs, you need 3 or 4 good starters -- which the Mariners certainly have. Unless we're talking about getting a pitcher who is a true top of rotation guy, an outstanding regular like Ken Griffey, Jr. provides more value.

Secondly, the Mariners pitching may staff may have already received a huge upgrade as both Jeff Weaver and Felix Hernandez appear to be returning to form. (We'll see after tonight's game versus the Red Sox.)

The Mariners are currently 40-33. They rank 6 of 14 in runs scored per game and 11 of 14 in runs allowed per game. Clearly, they have a decent offense (in fact, it's a little better than the Red Sox, despite Stone's claim otherwise).

But while the Mariners pitching has been a sore spot, it's worth looking under the hood. Before Jeff Weaver went on the DL, the Mariners lost all six games that he had started. They are 2-1 since his return, during which time he's allowed 4 runs in 19.2 innings. Moreover, the curious decision to start a rookie during Junior's homecoming resulted in a 16-1 loss. The Mariners are 40-26 in all their other games, allowing 4.47 runs per game -- good enough for 4th best in the American League.

In other words, the Mariners pitching stats are heavily skewed by Jeff Weaver's historically awful start and Mike Hargrove's stupid decision to start a rookie in the highest profile Mariners regular season game since 1995.

If both Weaver and Hernandez continue to pitch well, the Mariners should actually have a decent starting staff with 3 pitchers -- good enough for giving the team a shot in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Mariners, a boring, listless squad, could benefit from a player with Griffey's persona, not to mention his bat. Only Richie Sexson has more than 10 dingers, and his batting average is a joke, almost not printable -- a totally obscene .212. He may end up as the first player in baseball history to have more strikeouts than at bats (sic).

Finally, it would just be fun to have Junior back in town. Baseball is about having fun. The fact that he'd probably help the team more than the addition of another arm (unless it's we're talking about a true #1 or #2 pitcher) is an added bonus.

Larry Stone has a lot of baseball knowledge, and I'm sure he's a great guy, but on this topic he not only wrong, he doesn't understand what it means to be a Seattle Mariners fan.

Bring Junior Back

In today's Seattle Times, Larry Stone offers an apology:

Sorry to be a party pooper, but as rousing as the Griffey homecoming was, and as much as Griffey has meant to this organization, the M's need to evaluate their upcoming personnel moves divorced from the emotional tugs of a magical weekend.

He goes on to argue, without offering much evidence, that what the Mariners need is another pitcher, not another hitter. Here's the evidence he offers:

Heading into Monday's game against Boston, the Mariners had produced 5.01 runs per game. The mighty Red Sox, percolating along with baseball's best record, had scored 5.05 runs per game, a barely perceptible difference.

That's really not a great argument. First of all, the Mariners are primarily chasing a wild card spot, and certainly not the top spot in the AL East. As we learned in 2001, you need a team set up for the playoffs, not just the regular season. To succeed in the playoffs, you need 3 or 4 good starters -- which the Mariners certainly have. Unless we're talking about getting a pitcher who is a true top of rotation guy, an outstanding regular like Ken Griffey, Jr. provides more value.

Secondly, the Mariners pitching may staff may have already received a huge upgrade as both Jeff Weaver and Felix Hernandez appear to be returning to form. (We'll see after tonight's game versus the Red Sox.)

The Mariners are currently 40-33. They rank 6 of 14 in runs scored per game and 11 of 14 in runs allowed per game. Clearly, they have a decent offense (in fact, it's a little better than the Red Sox, despite Stone's claim otherwise).

But while the Mariners pitching has been a sore spot, it's worth looking under the hood. Before Jeff Weaver went on the DL, the Mariners lost all six games that he had started. They are 2-1 since his return, during which time he's allowed 4 runs in 19.2 innings. Moreover, the curious decision to start a rookie during Junior's homecoming resulted in a 16-1 loss. The Mariners are 40-26 in all their other games, allowing 4.47 runs per game -- good enough for 4th best in the American League.

In other words, the Mariners pitching stats are heavily skewed by Jeff Weaver's historically awful start and Mike Hargrove's stupid decision to start a rookie in the highest profile Mariners regular season game since 1995.

If both Weaver and Hernandez continue to pitch well, the Mariners should actually have a decent starting staff with 3 pitchers -- good enough for giving the team a shot in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Mariners, a boring, listless squad, could benefit from a player with Griffey's persona, not to mention his bat. Only Richie Sexson has more than 10 dingers, and his batting average is a joke, almost not printable -- a totally obscene .212. He may end up as the first player in baseball history to have more strikeouts than at bats (sic).

Finally, it would just be fun to have Junior back in town. Baseball is about having fun. The fact that he'd probably help the team more than the addition of another arm (unless it's we're talking about a true #1 or #2 pitcher) is an added bonus.

Larry Stone has a lot of baseball knowledge, and I'm sure he's a great guy, but on this topic he not only wrong, he doesn't understand what it means to be a Seattle Mariners fan.

The Jed Report Home Page

© Jed Lewison