The Felix Hernandez situation is just horrible. He's got another start scheduled for Thursday (one day before I head up Seattle to watch Junior play in Seattle for the first time in 8 years).
Since his outstanding first two games, he's had 8 starts, going 1-4 with a 6.63 ERA, averaging just under 5 innings per start. His WHIP is 2.03 which is really terrible.
He's still striking batters out (more than 1 per inning pitches), but he's letting too many runners reach base. You cannot be a successful major league pitcher with a WHIP over 2, no matter how many batters you strike out.
I hope these statistics simply reflect a young pitcher who is pitching tentatively, scared about the possibility of reinjuring his arm. I suspect, however, that he's still injured, and that we will never see the King Felix that we once expected, no matter what the organization says.
The only thing that gives me hope is that his slump could just reflect youthful arrogance -- he may not yet understand the importance of pitch location. (It also could reflect poor pitch calling by Johjima.) I'm not a big fan of Mike Hargrove, but his comments after Felix's last start support this idea:
"His command is just not where it was before he went on the disabled list," Hargrove said. "His stuff's still good, it's just that he needs to locate it better."
In other words, throwing three-quarters of his pitches inside the strike zone isn't a very good idea. Not when Hernandez keeps leaving them in the middle of the plate, missing his targets both on the inside and outside corners as well as down low.
"I don't care how hard you throw or how good your stuff is," Hargrove said. "If you don't locate it consistently, major-league hitters are going to hit you, and that's what we've seen happening with Felix."
I'm hoping that he's right. But I don't he is.
Thing is, not all of Hernandez's "stuff" has been good. His two-seam fastball sure isn't the same as it was back when he reeled off those season-opening wins.
"My two-seamer was working better than now," Hernandez said. "Now, I haven't got nothing.
"I still don't have it in the bullpen, either," he added. That's tough on a pitcher trying to establish his fastball early in games. Four of the Astros' first five batters notched hits off Hernandez.
The Mariners haven't had very good luck with young pitchers. It seems that history continues to haunt them.
© Jed Lewison