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Everybody hates Bonds because of steroids, right?
Also everybody seems to concede that 1999 or 2000 was the year in which he started using them, right?
It just so happens that up until the 1999 season, Barry Bonds had played in exactly 2,000 games, hitting 445 home runs.
Hank Aaron had played in 1,964 games in the nearest full season break. Through that point, he hit 442 home runs. The following season he played in 155 games, hitting 39 home runs. So we can estimate that through 2,000 games, Aaron hit 451 home runs.
Let me repeat that:
Through 2,000 games – a period of time Bonds is not accused of juicing – he hit 445 home runs and Hank Aaron hit 451.
Let’s take a deeper look at Aaron v Bonds BEFORE 1999. We’ll compare total career home runs, expressed as an absolute gap and percentage gap. Notice that in the first two seasons, Bonds was superior, but for the next twelve, Aaron took over. Also note this is not a season by season comparison, but rather a comparison of each player’s running career total.
Season 1: Bonds 3, 19%
Season 2: Bonds 1, 2%
Season 3: Aaron 1, 2%
Season 4: Aaron 26, 31%
Season 5: Aaron 23, 20%
Season 6: Aaron 37, 26%
Season 7: Aaron 43, 24%
Season 8: Aaron 31, 14%
Season 9: Aaron 39, 15% [This was 1994 for Bonds]
Season 10: Aaron 50, 17%
Season 11: Aaron 32, 10%
Season 12: Aaron 24, 6%
Season 13: Aaron 31, 8%
Season 14: Aaron 36, 8%
In case it’s not obvious, my point is that season by season – before anybody accuses Bonds of using steroids – he was closing the career home run gap with Aaron. In the final five years, Bonds narrowed their career home run gap by more than half; he cut it by well over a third in the final nine seasons despite having had a strike in 1994 which cost him 16 home runs.
In part as a result of the 1994 strike, through 14 seasons, Aaron played in over 100 more games (about 5%) than Bonds. The strike explains half of that gap.
In Bonds’ seasons 15-22, a portion of which he is accused of using steroids, he has played 1,056 games and hit 343 home runs.
In Aaron’s seasons 15-22, none of which he is accused of using steroids, he played 1,094 games and hit 264 home runs.
Aaron also played a 23rd season, playing 85 games and hitting 10 dingers.
I think based on these stats, it would be fair to conclude that AT MOST ninety of Bonds home runs (assuming he hits 10 more this season) are steroid related. Probably though the number is actually lower than that; Bonds had been hitting homers at a faster pace than Aaron in the years immediately preceding his steroid use. Moreover, Aaron was chasing 714 – Bonds was chasing 755. It’s only natural that Aaron would relax his intensity after achieving his goal, partly explaining Bonds superior production late in his career.
Wow. What a cheater. Barry Bonds is a fucking asshole. Or maybe his detractors just don’t like him. They loved Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire – even though Sammy Sosa swung a corked bat. Now that’s cheating.
I just wrote the following e-mail to my season ticket account representative at the Mariners. If the story I read (referenced below) is true, then I am furious. On the one hand, MLB gives local teams total control over TV. As a result, given that I live in Vegas, if I buy their Extra Innings television package, games from the following teams are usually blacked out: A's, Giants, Padres, Diamondbacks, and Angels. Why? Because those teams claim Vegas as their "home market." Bullshit. MLB should step in and tell teams to stop blocking customers from being able to buy their product.
On the flipside, MLB is now dictating to teams how they can do secondary ticket resales. Ticket sales truly is a local thing, and should be handled on a team-by-team basis. The Mariners have an outstanding secondary ticket resale mechanism. I basically set the price and up to 2 hours before a game, a fan can buy tickets from me, sometimes for less than face value, sometimes for much more. Now MLB is going to ban this system and make everybody use StubHub. Since StubHub requires fans to actually mail tickets to other fans, the cutoff before games is several days, not 2 hours. (Under the current system, tickets are e-mailed.)
Moreover, the current system allows me to forward tickets to my friends. StubHub does not support this.
For the past 12 years, I have averaged about $10,000 per year in spending with the Seattle Mariners. So what do I get for having spent $120,000? The idiotic MLB coming in and telling the Mariners how to handle ticket resales, which really should be the last damn thing the MLB is worried about.
Since I've been selling my tickets while living in Vegas, I've eked out a small profit. Eventually I'll move back to Seattle and start going to games again. But until then, this decision will cost me thousands of dollars. MLB can go to hell for all I care. They obviously hate their customers.
Here's the letter I sent to my ticket rep.:
Hi ****,
I just read an article (http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,1697,2165537,00.asp) saying that the MLB has just signed a deal with StubHub that will replace services like the Ticket Marketplace with some StubHub version.
I am sending you feedback in the hopes that you can pass it along to the powers that be – the current Ticket Marketplace, which allows for the electronic redistribution of tickets, is a really good service.
This Stubhub replacement is a HORRIBLE service since you need to physically mail tickets once you sell them. Now I can sell tickets on the day of game. With Stubhub, you need to do it several days in advance unless you are willing to meet the buyer before the game.
If this article is correct and the Mariners will be forced to stop using Ticketmaster, it is an affront to Season Ticket holders. We pay good money for our tickets, and to have the MLB corporate headquarters big foot around telling local teams how to handle tickets is really very, very bad customer service.
Currently, I can forward tickets to friends. With Stubhub, I cannot do this.
I hope the Mariners organization and others can stand up for their season ticket holders and send this plan where it belongs: to the trash.
Thanks,
Jed
I wonder how long it will take Mayor Nickels to try and parlay the tragic bridge collapse in Minnesota into more support for his plan to replace the Alaskan Way Viaduct with a tunnel?
Tony Snow is already pointing fingers, blaming the the state of Minnesota. What a classless piece of waste that man is.
Later in the morning, the White House said that an inspection two years ago found structural deficiencies in the bridge. White House press secretary Tony Snow said it rated 50 on a scale of 120 for structural stability.
"This doesn't mean there was a risk of failure, but if an inspection report identifies deficiencies, the state is responsible for taking corrective actions," he said.
The Mariners eked out a win last night against the Angels, keeping them 3 back. I still think the Ms will fade, but you never know.
The Ms are 12 games over .500 -- and have outscored their opponents by 2 runs.
The Diamondbacks are 11 games over .500 -- but their opponents have outscored them by 23 runs.
To have been outscored by 23 runs and still have a .500 record is absolutely remarkable, let alone a record 11 games over .500. Since 1980, only 1 team has been outscored by more runs and had more wins -- the 1984 Mets. the 1987 Twins were outscored by 20 runs and won the World Series. Roughly 90% of the teams that were outscored had losing records. Those with winning records averaged a .514 record. The D'Backs are .550 and the Ms are .557.
Last month, I noted that the Yankees were under .500 despite having outscored their opponents by 72 runs. I suggested they were underrated and would have a big second half. Since my post, they've gone 16-6 and have outscored their opponents by 65 runs in that stretch alone. They have closed the gap with the Red Sox to 7 games. The Red Sox have the best record in baseball, but the Yankees have outscored their opponents by even more than the Red Sox.
The Yankees are on pace to outscore their opponents by 189 runs. Since 1980, 17 teams (2.4%) have outscored their opponents by at least that much. 6 of those teams went to the World Series and 4 won it. Their average record was about 104-58.
Why am I so focused on run score differentials? Because you win games by outscoring your opponents. Looking at net runs is a way of weeding out luck. Net runs has a .93 correlation to a team's winning percentage, at least since 1980.
People have placed a lot of emphasis 1-run games, thinking that is a good measure of a team's clutch performance. All I can say is cognitive bias. The correlation of 1-run winning percentage to overall winning percentage is .59 -- just a little lower than .93.
The Luxor is undergoing a major overhaul. In general, it seems like a very smart move. But I have to wonder if "CatHouse" is really all that good a name for a restaurant? I mean, I get the punny reference to a whorehouse. But how cool or appetizing is that? And who really wants to eat cat? Who knows. Maybe HBO is sponsoring it?
Yesterday, the FBI raided Alaska Senator Ted Stevens's home as part of a corruption probe.
Also yesterday, one of Michael Vick's co-defendants pleaded guilty.
According to Google News, there were 1,896 articles published with the words "Ted", "Stevens", and "Home."
Meanwhile, there were 3,114 articles published with the words "Michael", "Vick", and "dog-fighting."
FOXNews.com featured 23 videos about Michael Vick. It had no videos about Ted Stevens (that's right, zero, nada).
They decide...because they report.
Arlen Specter recently slammed Harry Reid for being "rude" and "dictatorial."
Reid's offense? He made Specter wait thirty minutes before giving a floor speech. What happened during those thirty minutes? The Senate voted on an education bill.
The funny thing is that some people have called George W. Bush rude and dictorial.
The reality is, both sides are lying a little.
It's like the two kids in grade school math class studying the multiplication tables. The teacher asks each of them what 6*4 is. One of them answers 26. The other answers 298,341,334,287.
They're both lying a little.
Here's more info on Specter's beef:
"When the majority leader cut me off, and then made reference to what the people of Pennsylvania want ... I at least ought to have an opportunity to reply because I think I know more about Pennsylvania than Senator Reid does," Specter said.
To be interrupted like that, Specter said, was "rude, to say the minimum."
"And if the United States Senate doesn't run on comity, on courtesy, on basic decency, the United States Senate cannot run at all," Specter said.
Specter said former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., told him that Reid did the same thing to him a couple of days ago.
"Senator Lott said the majority leader wanted to publicly apologize. Senator Lott said, 'Not necessary.' Public apologies don't mean much."
Specter said Reid approached him after the interruption and said he would make sure Specter would be recognized to speak first after the vote on the education bill.
"I said, 'No thanks, I can get myself recognized,' " Specter said. "Those practices (by Reid), I think, are not only rude, but dictatorial."
Specter then turned to the overnight session.
"We had a meaningless, insulting all-night session for absolutely no purpose. It was an indignity to the senators who were kept here all night to vote," Specter said.
That made the Senate "the laughing stock of the world."