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Sat Aug 18, 3:55 AM Pacific
I know, it's shocking
Fri Aug 17, 10:30 AM Pacific
Q: What do cheaters do?
A: They cheat!
By ARNOLD M. KNIGHTLY
REVIEW-JOURNALIn the big money world of casino security, Steve Forte played like a high roller.
Harrah's Entertainment, the world's largest gaming company, bought copies of his books and videos to give to employees.
Forte's Web site boasts of consulting work with gaming companies and law enforcement agencies around the world that would have made him privy to the gambling industry's most sensitive secrets.
"The rest of us are small change compared to him," said Bill Zender, a gaming consultant for Last Resort Consulting and a longtime friend of Forte. "There is nobody out there in the industry right now that you can put on the same level."
But Forte's reputation took a heavy hit with his June 7 arrest in Atlantic City for allegedly conspiring to scam high-stakes poker games in a private room at the Borgata.
Thu Aug 16, 11:38 AM Pacific
Another amazing Barry Bonds stat
16.5% of Barry Bonds lifetime plate appearances have come while batting 1st in the lineup (Aaron only had 4 such appearances).
During his first 13 seasons, 25% of his PAs came while leading off. He averaged a HR every 27.6 PAs while hitting 1st. Batting lower in the order he averaged a HR every 18 PAs during this stretch. By comparison, during Aaron’s first 13 seasons, he hit a HR every 19.3 PAs.
Take a look at these stats:
Aaron: 9244 PAs / 506 HRs / 1 HR per 18.3 PAs (excludes those
seasons when Bonds may have been on steroids and after reaching Ruth)
Bonds:
7586 PAs / 436 HRs / 1 HR per 17.4 PAs (excludes those seasons when he
may have been on steroids and when batting leadoff)
For Barry Bonds, the above stats are when he is not batting leadoff and not using steroids (i.e., middle of the lineup, seasons 1-13 and 19-22). And for Aaron it is seasons 1-13 and 19-20 (two of his greatest seasons, immediately before passing Babe Ruth; after passing Ruth, his production falls off sharply, so I exclude seasons 21-23.)
Stepping back, Aaron’s stats are slightly superior if you look at seasons 1-13 without taking Bonds leadoff status into account. He hit 31 more HRs and hit them at a 2.1% faster pace than Bonds.
During this stretch of time, Aaron played in a pitcher’s ballpark during a pitcher’s era. He hit 20 more HRs on the road than he did at home.
Bonds also played in a pitcher’s ballpark, however, though he hit the same number of HRs at home as he did on the road (in Pitt and SF combined). Although it was not a pitcher’s era, it was mostly before the explosion in HRs (1986-1998).
Still, on balance, Bonds’ HR totals during this stretch are more impressive. He had to deal with a strike (explaining their PA differential) and he also had to deal with batting leadoff. Those two factors cost him about 65 home runs.
If there had been no strike and Bonds had hit in the middle of the order, he probably would have finished his first 13 seasons with about 476 home runs, well ahead of Hank Aaron’s pace.
Still, during seasons 14+, his performance was too good to be true.
In his first 13 years (excluding his leadoff PAs), Bonds hit home runs at a 7.7% faster clip than Hank Aaron. After that point, he hit them at a 34.7% faster clip. Now I think you need to take into account that once Aaron caught Ruth, his performance slipped dramatically. (This is only natural – no one appeared to be a legitimate challenger to Aaron’s record once he claimed it from Ruth. In the two years immediately before hitting the record, Aaron averaged a dinger every 13.6 PAs; in the two seasons after hitting the record, he hit one every 38.7 PAs. You can say that falloff is entirely about Aaron’s body breaking down, but I suspect it also has to do with psychological intensity. Simply put, I’m saying Aaron probably mailed it in for the last two years of his career.)
If we compare Bonds seasons 14-22 to Aaron’s seasons 14-20, when it was clear he was chasing Ruth, then Bonds hit HRs at a 20% faster clip than Aaron. At his previous relative clip, we would have expected him to hit 310 HRs; he actually hit 347. (These assume that Bonds still would have missed nearly two full seasons after season 13.)
Still, it’s pretty obvious Barry Bonds used steroids. During seasons 14-18:
Aaron: 3030 PAs / 197 HRs / 1 HR per 15.4 PAs (Remember that in seasons 19-30, he hit an HR every 13.6 PAs)
Bonds: 2867 PAs / 247 HRs / 1 HR per 11.6 PAs (His previous performance relative to Aaron should have been more like 14.6 or so)
Anyway, hopefully this will be my last missive about Bonds. I’m not even that big a fan of his, I just get annoyed at all the simpletons who reduce his story to a simple one: he’s a cheater.
This type of oversimplification is at times one of the strengths of our culture, but often it leads us astray. Hence George W. Bush can be a enormous hero in 2003 and within 3 years be the devil incarnate. Rudy Giuliani can be our savior in 2001 and then we realize he’s actually a slime ball dictator.
In other words, what really gets me about Bonds is our tendency to generate simplistic myths which while occasionally useful, generally end up having perverse impacts.
Don’t even get me started about Michael Vick, who is an overrated QB and probably a total piece of shit. But still, isn’t anybody troubled by the fact that 3 of his 4 defendants have struck deals with the prosecutor for reduced jail time – and those deals all REQUIRE them to testify against Vick. I don’t feel sorry for Vick one bit, but I worry that the cause of justice is not being served.
The bottom-line is that these stories are all really about the American myth. That’s why they are so important.
Tue Aug 14, 2:02 PM Pacific
Dumb criminals
Sun Aug 12, 8:35 PM Pacific
Stinky
Last September, a good friend of mine from college was in town. She came over to my house with her husband and their two young children, both boys. (Great kids, I might add!)
We spent the afternoon watching college football while her boys watched Shrek. Then we decided to head out for a barbecue dinner. Right before leaving, one of my friend's sons had to go to the bathroom. For him, peeing while standing was a relatively new experience, but he seemed to accomplish the task without major incident. (Apparently he hadn't yet learned about closing doors!)
A couple of days later, I began to notice quite a foul smell coming from that bathroom. Ugh! It was horrid. I figured that the kid must have sprayed all over the place. So I dutifully scrubbed the toilet, both inside and out, and even mopped the tile floor. To fill the mop bucket I used the bathtub. (This is a relevant detail.)
Wala! The foul odor was gone.
Well, about two weeks ago I began to smell the exact same aroma. So gross. I started to feel guilty for having blamed the young man for the stink. Obviously, I figured, the smell was a result of my bachelor-esque habit of not cleaning the bathroom as often as I should. Still, I toughed it out, electing to close the door. At the time, the smell was subtle, not overpowering.
Well yesterday it reached a breaking point, or a stinking point I should say. When I went shopping this morning, I purchased all sorts of cleaning agents to tackle this problem.
Then I realized something. The foul odor had gotten worse only after I had opened the shower curtain to adjust the blinds in the bathroom.
Could there be a dead animal in my shower tub? After all, I never use it. Or worse, could their be some sort of decaying scorpion colony or some other exotic southwestern bug?
Nope. Nothing.
Then I got another thought. What would happen if I turned on the water? Maybe the water would be brown and gross. So I turned it on. Nope. It ran clean. I let it run for a minute, just to be sure.
Then I left the bathroom to go get the cleaning supplies, ready to tackle my chore. When I returned, I noticed that the smell was gone. Huh? What had happened?
Could it be the smell was emanating from my drain? The thought had never occured to me. Yet it seemed the only logical explanation. How else could the smell just vanish?
To be sure, I filled the tub with hot water, and then let it drain. After two hours, the smell was still gone.
I desperately hoped that my problem was solved. So far, it appears that it has been solved. But why?
I did some Googling, and here's the best explanation I could find for what happened.
The traps in floor drains—or for that matter, any drains that haven’t been used often—will eventually dry out. This may sound harmless enough, but a dry trap can cause a room to fill with potentially harmful sewer gas from the septic tank or the city sewer system. Phew!
Eliminate this problem with a little fresh water topped with cooking oil (Photo 1). The oil floats on top of the water and seals it against evaporation. Your drain will hold water in the trap much longer.
I'm pretty sure this is it. I haven't used that drain in months -- I never shower there. My last house guests were here in May. And as you can guess, it's both hot and dry in Vegas. Things dry out fast. So now I've just gotta' keep it wet, and maybe add some oil to help keep it that way.
Thanks The Family Handyman for helping me figure this out. (Well, I hope I've figured it out.)
And I hope my friend's son will forgive me for having blamed him for stinking up my house! (To be fair, Inever did complain about it!)
