Posted by Jed Lewison on Thu Aug 16, 2007 at 11:38 AM Pacific

Another amazing Barry Bonds stat

16.5% of Barry Bonds lifetime plate appearances have come while batting 1st in the lineup (Aaron only had 4 such appearances).

During his first 13 seasons, 25% of his PAs came while leading off. He averaged a HR every 27.6 PAs while hitting 1st. Batting lower in the order he averaged a HR every 18 PAs during this stretch. By comparison, during Aaron’s first 13 seasons, he hit a HR every 19.3 PAs.

Take a look at these stats:

Aaron: 9244 PAs / 506 HRs / 1 HR per 18.3 PAs (excludes those seasons when Bonds may have been on steroids and after reaching Ruth)
Bonds: 7586 PAs / 436 HRs / 1 HR per 17.4 PAs (excludes those seasons when he may have been on steroids and when batting leadoff)

For Barry Bonds, the above stats are when he is not batting leadoff and not using steroids (i.e., middle of the lineup, seasons 1-13 and 19-22). And for Aaron it is seasons 1-13 and 19-20 (two of his greatest seasons, immediately before passing Babe Ruth; after passing Ruth, his production falls off sharply, so I exclude seasons 21-23.)

Stepping back, Aaron’s stats are slightly superior if you look at seasons 1-13 without taking Bonds leadoff status into account. He hit 31 more HRs and hit them at a 2.1% faster pace than Bonds.

During this stretch of time, Aaron played in a pitcher’s ballpark during a pitcher’s era. He hit 20 more HRs on the road than he did at home.

Bonds also played in a pitcher’s ballpark, however, though he hit the same number of HRs at home as he did on the road (in Pitt and SF combined). Although it was not a pitcher’s era, it was mostly before the explosion in HRs (1986-1998).

Still, on balance, Bonds’ HR totals during this stretch are more impressive. He had to deal with a strike (explaining their PA differential) and he also had to deal with batting leadoff. Those two factors cost him about 65 home runs.

If there had been no strike and Bonds had hit in the middle of the order, he probably would have finished his first 13 seasons with about 476 home runs, well ahead of Hank Aaron’s pace.

Still, during seasons 14+, his performance was too good to be true.

In his first 13 years (excluding his leadoff PAs), Bonds hit home runs at a 7.7% faster clip than Hank Aaron. After that point, he hit them at a 34.7% faster clip. Now I think you need to take into account that once Aaron caught Ruth, his performance slipped dramatically. (This is only natural – no one appeared to be a legitimate challenger to Aaron’s record once he claimed it from Ruth. In the two years immediately before hitting the record, Aaron averaged a dinger every 13.6 PAs; in the two seasons after hitting the record, he hit one every 38.7 PAs. You can say that falloff is entirely about Aaron’s body breaking down, but I suspect it also has to do with psychological intensity. Simply put, I’m saying Aaron probably mailed it in for the last two years of his career.)

If we compare Bonds seasons 14-22 to Aaron’s seasons 14-20, when it was clear he was chasing Ruth, then Bonds hit HRs at a 20% faster clip than Aaron. At his previous relative clip, we would have expected him to hit 310 HRs; he actually hit 347. (These assume that Bonds still would have missed nearly two full seasons after season 13.)

Still, it’s pretty obvious Barry Bonds used steroids. During seasons 14-18:

Aaron: 3030 PAs / 197 HRs / 1 HR per 15.4 PAs (Remember that in seasons 19-30, he hit an HR every 13.6 PAs)
Bonds: 2867 PAs / 247 HRs / 1 HR per 11.6 PAs (His previous performance relative to Aaron should have been more like 14.6 or so)

Anyway, hopefully this will be my last missive about Bonds. I’m not even that big a fan of his, I just get annoyed at all the simpletons who reduce his story to a simple one: he’s a cheater.

This type of oversimplification is at times one of the strengths of our culture, but often it leads us astray. Hence George W. Bush can be a enormous hero in 2003 and within 3 years be the devil incarnate. Rudy Giuliani can be our savior in 2001 and then we realize he’s actually a slime ball dictator.

In other words, what really gets me about Bonds is our tendency to generate simplistic myths which while occasionally useful, generally end up having perverse impacts.

Don’t even get me started about Michael Vick, who is an overrated QB and probably a total piece of shit. But still, isn’t anybody troubled by the fact that 3 of his 4 defendants have struck deals with the prosecutor for reduced jail time – and those deals all REQUIRE them to testify against Vick. I don’t feel sorry for Vick one bit, but I worry that the cause of justice is not being served.

The bottom-line is that these stories are all really about the American myth. That’s why they are so important.