The Mariners eked out a win last night against the Angels, keeping them 3 back. I still think the Ms will fade, but you never know.
The Ms are 12 games over .500 -- and have outscored their opponents by 2 runs.
The Diamondbacks are 11 games over .500 -- but their opponents have outscored them by 23 runs.
To have been outscored by 23 runs and still have a .500 record is absolutely remarkable, let alone a record 11 games over .500. Since 1980, only 1 team has been outscored by more runs and had more wins -- the 1984 Mets. the 1987 Twins were outscored by 20 runs and won the World Series. Roughly 90% of the teams that were outscored had losing records. Those with winning records averaged a .514 record. The D'Backs are .550 and the Ms are .557.
Last month, I noted that the Yankees were under .500 despite having outscored their opponents by 72 runs. I suggested they were underrated and would have a big second half. Since my post, they've gone 16-6 and have outscored their opponents by 65 runs in that stretch alone. They have closed the gap with the Red Sox to 7 games. The Red Sox have the best record in baseball, but the Yankees have outscored their opponents by even more than the Red Sox.
The Yankees are on pace to outscore their opponents by 189 runs. Since 1980, 17 teams (2.4%) have outscored their opponents by at least that much. 6 of those teams went to the World Series and 4 won it. Their average record was about 104-58.
Why am I so focused on run score differentials? Because you win games by outscoring your opponents. Looking at net runs is a way of weeding out luck. Net runs has a .93 correlation to a team's winning percentage, at least since 1980.
People have placed a lot of emphasis 1-run games, thinking that is a good measure of a team's clutch performance. All I can say is cognitive bias. The correlation of 1-run winning percentage to overall winning percentage is .59 -- just a little lower than .93.
© Jed Lewison