Posted by Jed Lewison on Tue Nov 13, 2007 at 6:02 PM Pacific

David Yepsen predicts a winner in Iowa...again

Politics can be like sports -- it's fun to handicap. Heck, you can even bet on it.

David Yepsen is sort of the David Broder of the Iowa press corps (make of that comparison what you will), and like all junkies, he loves to make predictions about the Iowa Caucuses.

Currently, he's bullish on Barack Obama's prospects:

Yepsen: Obama's superb speech at Jefferson Jackson Dinner could catapult his bid
The six leading Democratic presidential candidates showed up for the Iowa Democratic Party's big Jefferson Jackson Dinner on Saturday night, and five of them gave very good speeches.

Barack Obama's was excellent. It was one of the best of his campaign.
The passion he showed should help him close the gap on Hillary Clinton by tipping some undecided caucusgoers his way.

How much predictive value do Yepsen's pronouncements carry? Let's look some of his comments about Howard Dean in the days and weeks before the 2004 Iowa Caucus:

September 6, 2003:

Howard Dean may well be the next president of the United States because of people like Eliot Williamson, Megan Scott, Sally Troxel and Dick Stater. They are part of something called the "Dean Corps" in Iowa, and they are taking politics back to the future by organizing campaign work around community-service projects.

Even if Dean's campaign should bomb, which seems unlikely at this point, people who've worked for him will still come away with something to show for their efforts -- like a cleaner river or the knowledge they helped another human being in some small way. It also highlights Dean's resume. He got his start in politics organizing to get a bicycle trail built in Vermont.

November 25, 2003:

Howard Dean won Tuesday's debate of Democratic presidential candidates in Iowa. Wesley Clark came in second.

Dean went into the two-hour gabfest with a new poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers showing he has retaken the lead in Iowa over Richard Gephardt, who has slipped back into second place while John Kerry occupies third. Frontrunners become pincushions in debates, and Dean handled the poking well, by staying above the fray and by not responding to every jab Kerry or Gephardt sought to administer.

By returning to the high-road, Dean goes back to the "non-politician" style that has excited so many Democrats about his candidacy. Based on Tuesday's performance, he's back on top of this game.

January 13, 2004:

As the year begins, Dean is the front-runner, thanks largely to his anti-Iraq war views that enabled him to energize newcomers and much of the party left.

I've really got nothing against David Yepsen, but when it comes time to place bets on who will Iowa, I'm not taking his advice.

I'm not following the polls, either.

Iowa_end_game_small

(Sources: 10/28/03, 1/7/04, 1/14/04, 1/19/04.)

In fact, I've got no idea who will win -- Clinton, Edwards, or Obama.

Of this, however, I am sure: nobody is inevitable, and if they think they are, then they will lose.

David Yepsen predicts a winner in Iowa...again

Politics can be like sports -- it's fun to handicap. Heck, you can even bet on it.

David Yepsen is sort of the David Broder of the Iowa press corps (make of that comparison what you will), and like all junkies, he loves to make predictions about the Iowa Caucuses.

Currently, he's bullish on Barack Obama's prospects:

Yepsen: Obama's superb speech at Jefferson Jackson Dinner could catapult his bid
The six leading Democratic presidential candidates showed up for the Iowa Democratic Party's big Jefferson Jackson Dinner on Saturday night, and five of them gave very good speeches.

Barack Obama's was excellent. It was one of the best of his campaign.
The passion he showed should help him close the gap on Hillary Clinton by tipping some undecided caucusgoers his way.

How much predictive value do Yepsen's pronouncements carry? Let's look some of his comments about Howard Dean in the days and weeks before the 2004 Iowa Caucus:

September 6, 2003:

Howard Dean may well be the next president of the United States because of people like Eliot Williamson, Megan Scott, Sally Troxel and Dick Stater. They are part of something called the "Dean Corps" in Iowa, and they are taking politics back to the future by organizing campaign work around community-service projects.

Even if Dean's campaign should bomb, which seems unlikely at this point, people who've worked for him will still come away with something to show for their efforts -- like a cleaner river or the knowledge they helped another human being in some small way. It also highlights Dean's resume. He got his start in politics organizing to get a bicycle trail built in Vermont.

November 25, 2003:

Howard Dean won Tuesday's debate of Democratic presidential candidates in Iowa. Wesley Clark came in second.

Dean went into the two-hour gabfest with a new poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers showing he has retaken the lead in Iowa over Richard Gephardt, who has slipped back into second place while John Kerry occupies third. Frontrunners become pincushions in debates, and Dean handled the poking well, by staying above the fray and by not responding to every jab Kerry or Gephardt sought to administer.

By returning to the high-road, Dean goes back to the "non-politician" style that has excited so many Democrats about his candidacy. Based on Tuesday's performance, he's back on top of this game.

January 13, 2004:

As the year begins, Dean is the front-runner, thanks largely to his anti-Iraq war views that enabled him to energize newcomers and much of the party left.

I've really got nothing against David Yepsen, but when it comes time to place bets on who will Iowa, I'm not taking his advice.

I'm not following the polls, either.

Iowa_end_game_small

(Sources: 10/28/03, 1/7/04, 1/14/04, 1/19/04.)

In fact, I've got no idea who will win -- Clinton, Edwards, or Obama.

Of this, however, I am sure: nobody is inevitable, and if they think they are, then they will lose.

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