Posted by Jed Lewison on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 5:58 PM Pacific

Iowa poll of polls, with trends (Dems and GOPers)

I've pulled together a "poll of polls" for the Iowa caucus using all five polls conducted entirely since Christmas.

Here's the top-line for both the Democratic and Republican fields:

As I have noted before, trends are more important than snapshots, especially with the Iowa caucus.

Fortunately, each of the five post-Christmas polls was conducted by an organization that also conducted an Iowa poll in late November or early December.

As a result, it's possible to make assess trends using apples-to-apples comparisons of polls by the same polling organization. This mostly factors out difference in turnout models (a huge source of error in Iowa) in assessing trends in candidate preferences.

Here's a chart of the Democratic race (I excluded Richardson, who is trending down and is well below the 15% viability threshold):

Here's a chart of the Republican race (I included each of the top six candidates because Republicans don't have the same 15% threshold rule and also to show John McCain's progress which may be developing into a bit of a surge, and we all know how much he likes surges):

Here's the raw data for the Democrats:

Here's the raw data for the Republicans:

Iowa poll of polls, with trends (Dems and GOPers)

I've pulled together a "poll of polls" for the Iowa caucus using all five polls conducted entirely since Christmas.

Here's the top-line for both the Democratic and Republican fields:

As I have noted before, trends are more important than snapshots, especially with the Iowa caucus.

Fortunately, each of the five post-Christmas polls was conducted by an organization that also conducted an Iowa poll in late November or early December.

As a result, it's possible to make assess trends using apples-to-apples comparisons of polls by the same polling organization. This mostly factors out difference in turnout models (a huge source of error in Iowa) in assessing trends in candidate preferences.

Here's a chart of the Democratic race (I excluded Richardson, who is trending down and is well below the 15% viability threshold):

Here's a chart of the Republican race (I included each of the top six candidates because Republicans don't have the same 15% threshold rule and also to show John McCain's progress which may be developing into a bit of a surge, and we all know how much he likes surges):

Here's the raw data for the Democrats:

Here's the raw data for the Republicans:

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