Posted by Jed Lewison on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:12 AM Pacific

Horserace

I've averaged results from the daily Gallup and Rasmussen national tracking polls, which should be a decent barometer of trends heading into Super Tuesday.

Looking at the poll, you can see that people are taking perceptions of viability into account when they decide who to support. After Iowa, when Edwards finished second, he was doing much better than he was after New Hampshire, when he finished third. In the run-up to Nevada, his numbers once again climbed, but when he did poorly there, his numbers dropped.

Meanwhile, Obama, who started climbing after Iowa, leveled off after his narrow defeat in New Hampshire.

Hillary dipped after Iowa, and climbed after New Hampshire.

It's not all viability assessments, however. Hillary's national numbers started dropping after her rancorous debate performance.

Now that Ted Kennedy has endorsed Obama and it's clear that Obama can put together a winning coalition, I suspect -- but can't guarantee -- that Hillary's numbers will slip further.

The question now is whether he can overtake Hillary and win a plurality of delegates by Super Tuesday. If that happens, I would be surprised if she didn't withdraw from the race.

As an Edwards partisan, I have to point out that over the past few days, he's climbed -- along with Obama -- as Hillary has slipped.

Horserace

I've averaged results from the daily Gallup and Rasmussen national tracking polls, which should be a decent barometer of trends heading into Super Tuesday.

Looking at the poll, you can see that people are taking perceptions of viability into account when they decide who to support. After Iowa, when Edwards finished second, he was doing much better than he was after New Hampshire, when he finished third. In the run-up to Nevada, his numbers once again climbed, but when he did poorly there, his numbers dropped.

Meanwhile, Obama, who started climbing after Iowa, leveled off after his narrow defeat in New Hampshire.

Hillary dipped after Iowa, and climbed after New Hampshire.

It's not all viability assessments, however. Hillary's national numbers started dropping after her rancorous debate performance.

Now that Ted Kennedy has endorsed Obama and it's clear that Obama can put together a winning coalition, I suspect -- but can't guarantee -- that Hillary's numbers will slip further.

The question now is whether he can overtake Hillary and win a plurality of delegates by Super Tuesday. If that happens, I would be surprised if she didn't withdraw from the race.

As an Edwards partisan, I have to point out that over the past few days, he's climbed -- along with Obama -- as Hillary has slipped.

The Jed Report Home Page

© Jed Lewison