Posted by Jed Lewison on Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 11:43 AM Pacific

Nominating Barack Obama is how we will win in November

Since January 2007, survey after survey has revealed that Barack Obama would be a stronger candidate against John McCain than Hillary Clinton and in the last couple of months the data has become even more compelling.

In 2007, both Obama and Clinton enjoyed similar levels of support in public polls. Against McCain, Clinton averaged 45.3% and Obama averaged 44.8%. The reason why Obama performed better overall despite having slightly less support than Clinton was that he held McCain to a lower level of support than did Clinton. Against Clinton, McCain averaged 45.0%, while against Obama, he averaged just 42.5%.

Thus, in 2007, the difference between Obama and Clinton had more to do with Clinton's negatives than with Obama's positives.

In 2008, however, the more voters have learned about Barack Obama, the more they seem to like him. At the same time that Hillary Clinton's support is dropping, Obama's is increasing, and the data illustrating his superior electability is strengthening.

Unlike in 2007, so far in 2008, Obama receives a higher level of support than Hillary Clinton, 45.7% to 44.5%. He continues to hold McCain to a lower total, 43.7%, than does Hillary, 47.0%.

In February alone, while Obama leads McCain 47.6%-42.3% on average, Clinton trails 44.8%-47.3%.

Here are some charts with the data:

Nominating Barack Obama is how we will win in November

Since January 2007, survey after survey has revealed that Barack Obama would be a stronger candidate against John McCain than Hillary Clinton and in the last couple of months the data has become even more compelling.

In 2007, both Obama and Clinton enjoyed similar levels of support in public polls. Against McCain, Clinton averaged 45.3% and Obama averaged 44.8%. The reason why Obama performed better overall despite having slightly less support than Clinton was that he held McCain to a lower level of support than did Clinton. Against Clinton, McCain averaged 45.0%, while against Obama, he averaged just 42.5%.

Thus, in 2007, the difference between Obama and Clinton had more to do with Clinton's negatives than with Obama's positives.

In 2008, however, the more voters have learned about Barack Obama, the more they seem to like him. At the same time that Hillary Clinton's support is dropping, Obama's is increasing, and the data illustrating his superior electability is strengthening.

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