Later today, we'll be posting analysis of the numbers in the wake of yesterday's primary in Wisconsin and caucus in Hawaii.
A few quick observations, though.
First, according to MSNBC's delegate projection, Barack Obama now has 1,156 pledged delegates to 1,014 for Hillary Clinton.
With 986 delegates left to be selected (and another 71 to be allocated from previous voting), Barack Obama is now 71% of the way towards the magic number of 1,627 -- the number of delegates needed to guarantee a majority of democratically selected pledged delegates.
Hillary Clinton is languishing at 62% of the way towards the goal.
To hit the magic number, Obama must win 44.5% of the delegates remaining to be selected and allocated.
Clinton must win 58% -- a threshold she has hit exactly once this campaign, in Arkansas.
Meanwhile, Obama hit 58% yesterday in Wisconsin and Hawaii.
Translation: it's very unlikely to happen.
Yesterday, Jake Tapper offered this observation on the prospects of a big loss by Clinton in Wisconsin:
If Clinton Loses Big in Wisconsin TonightFebruary 19, 2008 10:03 PM
And that's an "if" as of now….
But if she does…
You do have to wonder…
9 in a row…(and likely 10 by Wednesday morning)
Largely by HUGE margins....
I mean, embarrassing margins, really...
All over the country...from Washington State to Maine to Wisconsin to Louisiana...
You can't explain this away as small states…or caucus states…or black states…or whatever the excuse du jour may be.
I mean, they can.
And they will.
But at some point it really might start to seem like...well...
Well, like this is a rejection by Democratic voters.
A rejection. Of Clinton and her politics.
And a full-fledged embrace of Obama.
Over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again.
- jpt
© Jed Lewison