I just listened to a few minutes of Chris Matthews, Eugene Robinson, and Ron Brownstein discussing the Gallup survey showing more Clinton voters (28%) would support McCain in a general election than Obama supporters would support McCain (19%).
This is nothing new. It's a trend identified about a month ago by Pew. John Aravosis wrote about it in AMERICAblog earlier this month.
Implicit in their discussion is notion that Clinton's "downscale white voters" (as they like to call them) won't vote for Obama because Obama is black. But another explanation -- one that I find more plausible -- is that the reason why Clinton voters are more likely to oppose Obama than vice versa is that Clinton has been attacking Obama for longer than Obama has been attacking Clinton.
Now that Obama has started to return fire, the portion of his supporters who wouldn't support Clinton has increased -- from 10% in the Pew Poll to 19% today. (Clinton's numbers were virtually unchanged, 25% then, 28% now.) It makes complete sense that if one candidate attacks another, his or her hard core supporters will turn negative on the target of the attacks.
It's just a hypothesis, but I like it more than the other one.
One other note: hopefully this puts to rest the idea that Obama must be given the nomination to placate African American voters. The media has irresponsibly characterized the potential of superdelegates overturning the judgment of voters as something that would anger blacks, hinting at riotous recriminations. If anything, these polls show that voters of all races, genders, and ideological persuasions can bolt from the party if the right buttons are pressed.
Moreover, blacks seem the least likely to engage in such recriminations. According to the Pew study, 93% of blacks would vote for Clinton versus McCain while 96% would vote for Obama -- virtually no difference. In the Pew poll, most defectors from Obama to Clinton are white independents -- not blacks. It should obvious, then, that the real reason the pledged delegate winner should also win the nomination isn't fear of an African American revolt against the Democratic Party -- it is that the pledged delegate winner will be the only candidate with a solid claim to legitimacy.
There's no need to engage in scapegoating.
© Jed Lewison