Posted by Jed Lewison on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 12:15 PM Pacific

One quarter of Clinton supporters would vote for McCain over Obama

From a Pew Research Center survey released two weeks ago (h/t John Aravosis):

  • If Obama wins the nomination, Clinton supporters will vote for him 65-25
  • If Clinton wins the nomination, Obama supporters will vote for her 86-10
  • White Dems will vote for Obama 75-20, Clinton 87-10
  • Black Dems will vote for Obama 96-1, Clinton 93-1
  • Men will vote for Obama 84-14, Clinton 84-12
  • Women will vote for Obama 79-15, Clinton 93-5
  • 65+ will vote for Obama 68-22, Clinton 84-12
  • Under $30k will vote for Obama 73-17, Clinton 90-7

These numbers show that it's Barack Obama, not Hillary Clinton, who would face a tougher challenge consolidating the Democratic base as nominee.

I suspect these numbers reflect the Clinton campaign's negative attacks on Obama. They don't seem to have moved that much if any of his support to her, but it has had an impact on how her own supporters view him.

From the perspective of the Democratic party, this is the worst of all worlds: one candidate is attacking the other in futile effort to win over new support -- and in the process, creating an ever growing challenge for .

Unfortunately, the Clinton campaign doesn't seem to care about the effects of their strategy on the Democratic party. Still, there's a lot of time between now and November, and Obama has a key asset that Clinton does not -- strong support amongst independents. Ironically (given the Republicans for Clinton trend), Obama has slightly more support than Clinton amongst Republicans who will actually vote for him this fall.

  • Obama polls slightly higher against McCain amongst Republican voters than does Clinton. (8% versus 5%)
  • Obama leads independents by 6 (49-43), and Clinton trails by 6 (44-50).
  • Obama is especially strong amongst independent women, leading 57-37, compared to 50-47 for Clinton.
  • Amongst independents, Obama's fav/unfav is 63/32, McCain's is 51/38, and Clinton's is 45/50.
  • Obama's likability amongst independents: 51% very likable; McCain was 13%, Clinton 18%

One quarter of Clinton supporters would vote for McCain over Obama

From a Pew Research Center survey released two weeks ago (h/t John Aravosis):

  • If Obama wins the nomination, Clinton supporters will vote for him 65-25
  • If Clinton wins the nomination, Obama supporters will vote for her 86-10
  • White Dems will vote for Obama 75-20, Clinton 87-10
  • Black Dems will vote for Obama 96-1, Clinton 93-1
  • Men will vote for Obama 84-14, Clinton 84-12
  • Women will vote for Obama 79-15, Clinton 93-5
  • 65+ will vote for Obama 68-22, Clinton 84-12
  • Under $30k will vote for Obama 73-17, Clinton 90-7

These numbers show that it's Barack Obama, not Hillary Clinton, who would face a tougher challenge consolidating the Democratic base as nominee.

I suspect these numbers reflect the Clinton campaign's negative attacks on Obama. They don't seem to have moved that much if any of his support to her, but it has had an impact on how her own supporters view him.

From the perspective of the Democratic party, this is the worst of all worlds: one candidate is attacking the other in futile effort to win over new support -- and in the process, creating an ever growing challenge for .

Unfortunately, the Clinton campaign doesn't seem to care about the effects of their strategy on the Democratic party. Still, there's a lot of time between now and November, and Obama has a key asset that Clinton does not -- strong support amongst independents. Ironically (given the Republicans for Clinton trend), Obama has slightly more support than Clinton amongst Republicans who will actually vote for him this fall.

  • Obama polls slightly higher against McCain amongst Republican voters than does Clinton. (8% versus 5%)
  • Obama leads independents by 6 (49-43), and Clinton trails by 6 (44-50).
  • Obama is especially strong amongst independent women, leading 57-37, compared to 50-47 for Clinton.
  • Amongst independents, Obama's fav/unfav is 63/32, McCain's is 51/38, and Clinton's is 45/50.
  • Obama's likability amongst independents: 51% very likable; McCain was 13%, Clinton 18%

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