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Hillary Clinton's entire electability argument can pretty much be boiled down to one four-letter word: Ohio.
As she said on the night of her primary victory there:
"No person has ever won the White House without winning the Ohio primary, in either party...Somehow the people of Ohio end up picking the winners."
Now, it's worth noting that her statement was completely false. The Ohio primary didn't exist until 1912 and since then five presidents didn't win the state's primary: Woodrow Wilson, FDR, Eisenhower, JFK, and Nixon. Her statement is accurate for the last few elections, but it was nonetheless misleading because the Ohio primary hasn't played a pivotal role in the earlier part of the nomination process. As Ohio State University polisci professor Herb Asher said, Clinton "has taken a little bit of a liberty here."
It's a microcosm of Hillary Clinton's larger problem: credibility.
People just don't believe that she's honest and trustworthy, and now that she has misrepresented (a kind word) her position on NAFTA to the people of Ohio, she has shot her electability argument straight to hell.
It might not show up in the polls right now, but you can imagine the ads McCain will run against her in Ohio? The 527s will have a field day!
And it will be easy. Here's a web ad I put together just this morning:
Now if I (an amateur) can put that together in just a few hours, imagine what the Republicans are going to be able to do to her.
She doesn't stand a chance of winning Ohio, I'm sorry to say.
No matter how much I might wish it were otherwise (or not), frankly, her own pattern of deceit has sunk her own chances this fall.
Just close your eyes and use your imagination and you'll figure it out.
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I know some people like Lanny Davis will be inclined to respond that she is more electable than the other guy, who Lanny might describe as an African-American-Indonesian drug-abusing Madrassa-attending radical Muslim whose Christian church is leading a black nationalist movement and who doesn't know the words to the national anthem and refuses to pledge allegiance to the flag.
Problem is Lanny, none of that is true (except his church is Christian!). It might take a little while, but to the extent that any of Barack Obama's have already spread these rumors, he -- and we -- will be able to knock them down.
Unfortunately for Hillary Clinton, she is the one who lied. And you can't take back a lie, especially not when it's a really, really big one.
Don't forget, NAFTA is such an important issue that when Barack Obama criticized Clinton for having an inconsistent record, she went absolutely &^&%*@#(*@@!!)@(:
This is really a memo to the undecided superdelegates: the next time you talk to the campaign, find out how Hillary Clinton plans to win without Ohio.
Because after the NAFTA revelations of the last couple of days, she's not winning Ohio.