Posted by Jed Lewison on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 3:12 PM Pacific

Another reason why McCain has pulled even

Andrew Sullivan posits that McCain's lead (recently more of a tie) is fleeting, and others agree.

I think one of the things likely dampening the poll numbers for both Obama and Clinton is that in the midst of a campaign, partisan supporters of each candidate have strong, self-generated incentives to believe the worst about their opponents.

In the case of Clinton supporters, you need look no further than Lanny Davis and his take on Jeremiah Wright. I'd like to think that most Clinton supporters in normal times would reject what is being said about Obama by Davis, but now they have a strong incentive to grab a hold of anything that they believe might help them win,  no matter how shaky it might be.

In the case of Obama supporters, you see it when we read David Brooks or Peggy Noonan without realizing that in some ways they are merely setting the rhetoric which they plan to use against Obama during the campaign. Or in my personal case, accepting the New York Times account of a Clinton yarn without remembering that the New York Times has the same credibility issues as does Clinton.

The key fact right now is that Obama is going to win, but the campaign won't end until Hillary Clinton decides to concede.

Another reason why McCain has pulled even

Andrew Sullivan posits that McCain's lead (recently more of a tie) is fleeting, and others agree.

I think one of the things likely dampening the poll numbers for both Obama and Clinton is that in the midst of a campaign, partisan supporters of each candidate have strong, self-generated incentives to believe the worst about their opponents.

In the case of Clinton supporters, you need look no further than Lanny Davis and his take on Jeremiah Wright. I'd like to think that most Clinton supporters in normal times would reject what is being said about Obama by Davis, but now they have a strong incentive to grab a hold of anything that they believe might help them win,  no matter how shaky it might be.

In the case of Obama supporters, you see it when we read David Brooks or Peggy Noonan without realizing that in some ways they are merely setting the rhetoric which they plan to use against Obama during the campaign. Or in my personal case, accepting the New York Times account of a Clinton yarn without remembering that the New York Times has the same credibility issues as does Clinton.

The key fact right now is that Obama is going to win, but the campaign won't end until Hillary Clinton decides to concede.

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