Posted by Jed Lewison on Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 3:25 PM Pacific

CQ delivers detailed analysis of PA delegate race

It's a long article, and I admit I didn't read every district. The key stat: CQ projects the district-by-district split to be narrow, 53-50 (for Clinton). Another 55 delegates will be distributed by statewide popular vote, meaning that overall Clinton might net 15-20 delegates -- tops -- out of Pennsylvania. (h/t: Ben Smith)

As a reminder, when people say things like Barack Obama has won, or Hillary Clinton has lost, it's not idle rhetoric. Obama's numerical lead really is insurmountable:

Clinton's best case scenario is to end the campaign trailing by 100 to 150 delegates. At that point, she'd need about two-thirds of the uncommitted superdelegates to sign up for a coup. And there just isn't any evidence that will happen. Indeed, superdelegates are moving the opposite direction, either endorsing Barack Obama, or embracing the Pelosi standard: pledged delegates will determine the nominee.

Most ominously for Senator Clinton, her own supporters are moving towards the Pelosi standard (Barney Frank is the most recent example).

CQ delivers detailed analysis of PA delegate race

It's a long article, and I admit I didn't read every district. The key stat: CQ projects the district-by-district split to be narrow, 53-50 (for Clinton). Another 55 delegates will be distributed by statewide popular vote, meaning that overall Clinton might net 15-20 delegates -- tops -- out of Pennsylvania. (h/t: Ben Smith)

As a reminder, when people say things like Barack Obama has won, or Hillary Clinton has lost, it's not idle rhetoric. Obama's numerical lead really is insurmountable:

Clinton's best case scenario is to end the campaign trailing by 100 to 150 delegates. At that point, she'd need about two-thirds of the uncommitted superdelegates to sign up for a coup. And there just isn't any evidence that will happen. Indeed, superdelegates are moving the opposite direction, either endorsing Barack Obama, or embracing the Pelosi standard: pledged delegates will determine the nominee.

Most ominously for Senator Clinton, her own supporters are moving towards the Pelosi standard (Barney Frank is the most recent example).

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