Posted by Jed Lewison on Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 11:39 AM Pacific

Here's how Democrats can end the nomination battle

As I said earlier, the question isn't if or whether Obama will win -- it's how and when.

It's pretty clear by now that the ongoing contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is doing nobody other than John McCain any good. It's also obvious that Obama will be the nominee: his pledged delegate lead is insurmountable, and superdelegates aren't going to lead coup against the voters.

Superdelegates could in theory end it tomorrow by lining up behind Barack Obama and pledging their support to his candidacy. Logically, that would make sense -- after all, they are going to to do it eventually anyway.

The problem is that it just wouldn't look right for Barack Obama to lose Pennsylvania -- albeit by a narrower than expected margin -- only to have superdelegates appear to bigfoot all over the results by endorsing him. Yes, I know that defies all logic, but this is politics we're talking about.

So how the hell do we end this thing in triumph? Well, documenting the various reasons why Hillary Clinton is screwing the party by not quitting won't end it, unfortunately. (I'm still going to keep on doing that for therapeutic reasons, if nothing else.)

The way I see, there are two ways we can end this campaign in reasonable time, and both of them involve Barack Obama getting across the finish line with a win.

Plan A (May 6): Barack Obama wins both Indiana and North Carolina

If this happens, Clinton will withdraw, and if she doesn't withdraw, half her campaign staff and all her fundraisers will quit. I like this scenario because it happens soon -- May 6, just four days after my birthday -- and because it doesn't require any math.

So as for Plan A: Go, Barack, Go!

Alas, Plan A may not come to pass. Barack is not a favorite to win in Indiana, though he should be able to win in North Carolina.

That brings us to the next scenario.

Plan B (May 20): Uncommitted superdelegates join the "Pelosi Club" (i.e., promise to support winner of pledged delegate contest)

Under Plan B, Barack Obama will win the nomination after he wins Oregon on May 20. Let me work through the math to show you why. (Don't worry, it's simple math.)

To start with, there are 3,253 pledged delegates, and 1,627 of them will constitute a majority. The first candidate to hit 1,627 pledged delegates will be the nominee unless there is a coup by superdelegate.

Now, keep that 1,627 number in mind while we turn to the actual totals of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

After Pennsylvania, Obama will probably have around 1,493 pledged delegates and Clinton will have 1,334. Assuming that she wins Indiana (remember, this is Plan B), West Virginia, and Kentucky, and that Obama wins North Carolina, Guam, and Oregon, on May 20, Barack Obama will have 1,634 pledged delegates to Clinton's 1,485. That means on May 20, he will have guaranteed himself a majority of pledged delegates heading to the Denver convention.

Now, as things currently stand, 230 superdelegates support Barack Obama and 255 support Hillary Clinton. 310 are undecided.

That would give Barack Obama a total of 1,864 delegates on May 20 -- 161 short of the 2,025 delegates he needs to win the nomination.

So what we need is about 161 (let's say 170 to be safe) superdelegates to join the Pelosi club, agreeing to support whomever wins the pledged delegate battle.

The beautiful thing about Plan B is that it does not require superdelegates to endorse Barack Obama -- it doesn't require them to "give" him the nomination. Instead, by committing their support to the winner of the pledged delegate battle, these superdelegates will allow Barack Obama to earn the nomination on May 20, crossing the finish line with a win.

That sets up a narrative for a huge, inspiring victory in Oregon.

(Now there's always the chance that Barack Obama will lose Oregon, but I think that if he loses Oregon, enough other bad things will have happened that he won't be hitting 1,627 pledged delegates on May 20. But he's going to win Oregon. Maybe a 5% chance we need a Plan C, but I doubt it. We'll figure out what to do in the unlikely that scenario presents itself.)

Getting superdelegates to join the Pelosi club shouldn't be hard to do. Again, they don't have to endorse anyone, and it's what they are going to do anyway. Even some pro-Clinton superdelegates can join the Pelosi club (some already have according to DemConWatch).

Conclusion:

Over the next two weeks, Barack Obama (and us, as his supporters) should focus his most of his energy on winning both North Carolina and Indiana. Hopefully, that results in two wins, ending the campaign.

On a parallel track, Democratic Party officials who understand that Obama will be the nominee should work to secure 170 or so commitments by superdelegates to join the Pelosi Club.

This sets up a perfect narrative. Either Plan A works -- we win North Carolina and Indiana -- or we mvoe on to Plan B, and by winning Oregon on May 20, Barack Obama will cross the finish line and become the nominee.

Either way, if we head down this path, there's a 95%+ certainty that on May 6 or May 20 we will be celebrating Barack Obama as the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party.

Until that point, who cares about the spin of the media? I find it annoying so I just turn the television off.

We're going to win. It's not a question of whether or if. It's just a question of how and when.

And I think that on May 6 or May 20, one of these two plans will allow Barack Obama to win -- not by default, but by triumph.

So what do you think? Are you ready? Let's close this out!

(I've got some non-campaign obligations to attend to today, so this will probably be my last post for the day, or at least until the late evening. Please leave your thoughts and comments, though -- I'll be reading them and my e-mail.)

Here's how Democrats can end the nomination battle

As I said earlier, the question isn't if or whether Obama will win -- it's how and when.

It's pretty clear by now that the ongoing contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is doing nobody other than John McCain any good. It's also obvious that Obama will be the nominee: his pledged delegate lead is insurmountable, and superdelegates aren't going to lead coup against the voters.

Superdelegates could in theory end it tomorrow by lining up behind Barack Obama and pledging their support to his candidacy. Logically, that would make sense -- after all, they are going to to do it eventually anyway.

The problem is that it just wouldn't look right for Barack Obama to lose Pennsylvania -- albeit by a narrower than expected margin -- only to have superdelegates appear to bigfoot all over the results by endorsing him. Yes, I know that defies all logic, but this is politics we're talking about.

So how the hell do we end this thing in triumph? Well, documenting the various reasons why Hillary Clinton is screwing the party by not quitting won't end it, unfortunately. (I'm still going to keep on doing that for therapeutic reasons, if nothing else.)

The way I see, there are two ways we can end this campaign in reasonable time, and both of them involve Barack Obama getting across the finish line with a win.

Plan A (May 6): Barack Obama wins both Indiana and North Carolina

If this happens, Clinton will withdraw, and if she doesn't withdraw, half her campaign staff and all her fundraisers will quit. I like this scenario because it happens soon -- May 6, just four days after my birthday -- and because it doesn't require any math.

So as for Plan A: Go, Barack, Go!

Alas, Plan A may not come to pass. Barack is not a favorite to win in Indiana, though he should be able to win in North Carolina.

That brings us to the next scenario.

Plan B (May 20): Uncommitted superdelegates join the "Pelosi Club" (i.e., promise to support winner of pledged delegate contest)

Under Plan B, Barack Obama will win the nomination after he wins Oregon on May 20. Let me work through the math to show you why. (Don't worry, it's simple math.)

To start with, there are 3,253 pledged delegates, and 1,627 of them will constitute a majority. The first candidate to hit 1,627 pledged delegates will be the nominee unless there is a coup by superdelegate.

Now, keep that 1,627 number in mind while we turn to the actual totals of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

After Pennsylvania, Obama will probably have around 1,493 pledged delegates and Clinton will have 1,334. Assuming that she wins Indiana (remember, this is Plan B), West Virginia, and Kentucky, and that Obama wins North Carolina, Guam, and Oregon, on May 20, Barack Obama will have 1,634 pledged delegates to Clinton's 1,485. That means on May 20, he will have guaranteed himself a majority of pledged delegates heading to the Denver convention.

Now, as things currently stand, 230 superdelegates support Barack Obama and 255 support Hillary Clinton. 310 are undecided.

That would give Barack Obama a total of 1,864 delegates on May 20 -- 161 short of the 2,025 delegates he needs to win the nomination.

So what we need is about 161 (let's say 170 to be safe) superdelegates to join the Pelosi club, agreeing to support whomever wins the pledged delegate battle.

The beautiful thing about Plan B is that it does not require superdelegates to endorse Barack Obama -- it doesn't require them to "give" him the nomination. Instead, by committing their support to the winner of the pledged delegate battle, these superdelegates will allow Barack Obama to earn the nomination on May 20, crossing the finish line with a win.

That sets up a narrative for a huge, inspiring victory in Oregon.

(Now there's always the chance that Barack Obama will lose Oregon, but I think that if he loses Oregon, enough other bad things will have happened that he won't be hitting 1,627 pledged delegates on May 20. But he's going to win Oregon. Maybe a 5% chance we need a Plan C, but I doubt it. We'll figure out what to do in the unlikely that scenario presents itself.)

Getting superdelegates to join the Pelosi club shouldn't be hard to do. Again, they don't have to endorse anyone, and it's what they are going to do anyway. Even some pro-Clinton superdelegates can join the Pelosi club (some already have according to DemConWatch).

Conclusion:

Over the next two weeks, Barack Obama (and us, as his supporters) should focus his most of his energy on winning both North Carolina and Indiana. Hopefully, that results in two wins, ending the campaign.

On a parallel track, Democratic Party officials who understand that Obama will be the nominee should work to secure 170 or so commitments by superdelegates to join the Pelosi Club.

This sets up a perfect narrative. Either Plan A works -- we win North Carolina and Indiana -- or we mvoe on to Plan B, and by winning Oregon on May 20, Barack Obama will cross the finish line and become the nominee.

Either way, if we head down this path, there's a 95%+ certainty that on May 6 or May 20 we will be celebrating Barack Obama as the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party.

Until that point, who cares about the spin of the media? I find it annoying so I just turn the television off.

We're going to win. It's not a question of whether or if. It's just a question of how and when.

And I think that on May 6 or May 20, one of these two plans will allow Barack Obama to win -- not by default, but by triumph.

So what do you think? Are you ready? Let's close this out!

(I've got some non-campaign obligations to attend to today, so this will probably be my last post for the day, or at least until the late evening. Please leave your thoughts and comments, though -- I'll be reading them and my e-mail.)

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