Posted by Jed Lewison on Fri Apr 4, 2008 at 3:53 PM Pacific

"If Richardson is Judas, which Clinton is Jesus?" pt 2

The title of the post is a fitting epitaph for the Clinton era in the Democratic Party. I wish I could take credit for it, but I can't -- the words belongs to Joel Connelly, the top political reporter in the northwest and one of the best in the country. He's now a columnist for the Seattle Post-Intelligencer and his most recent column (digg it) is a devastating appraisal of the Clinton campaign as it heads into its final days.

As Joel argues, whether the Clintons are ready to accept the situation or not, Hillary Clinton's bid for the presidency is in its closing stages -- and they have nobody to blame but themselves.

The miscalculations and misjudgments -- which likely have cost Hillary Clinton the nomination, and Bill Clinton much of his reputation -- are the campaign's own doing.

In years past, the Clintons showed an amazing knack for getting themselves into binds, then escaping tight corners. It has deserted them.

As the saying goes, it ain't over 'til it's over -- but it's pretty close to over. All that's left is for us to finish the job.

Most people think Obama's going to win, and that took the sting out of James Carville's Judas attack. Losers can't be bullies, and a growing number of people see the Clintons as losers -- and Barack Obama as a winner.

The polls don't yet fully reflect this trend, but it's real. Here are some examples:

1. Grassroots enthusiasm much stronger for Barack Obama than Hillary Clinton

In 2007, Hillary Clinton outraised Barack Obama, ~$121 million to ~$107 million. So far in 2008, Obama has outraised Clinton $127 million to $68 million.

More importantly, Obama's fundraising has come from over one million individual donors. Last month, his average contribution is less than $100 -- a remarkable achievement.

Meanwhile, on the campaign trail Barack Obama is a rock star. He fills arenas, drawing 22,000 to a rally last weekend in Pennsylvania.

2. Obama has maintained the same rationale for his candidacy throughout the campaign

Barack Obama is making the same arguments today that he was making earlier in the campaign. Perhaps the best example: the central message of "The Speech" was exactly the same as his Ebenezer Sermon. True, he dealt with a new wrinkle -- the Wright flareup -- but he dealt with it successfully.

Clinton on the other hand has been forced into a kitchen sink strategy. You never know what she'll come up with next -- and neither does she. Case in point: Richard Mellon Scaife.

Clinton, on the hand, blew the Bosnian sniper fire gaffe at every opportunity.

3. Barack Obama quelled concerns from superdelegates by forcefully dispensing with Wright flareup, which could have become a full-scale crisis

Barack Obama's speedy and decisive handling of the Wright flareup is the mark of a winning candidacy. It was the most severe test any candidate has faced during the entire campaign and he passed with high marks all around.

4. Barack Obama has stuck with a simple -- and widely accepted -- definition of what it means to win

Barack Obama hasn't budged an inch from his position that voters should determine the nominee. Perhaps he only takes that position because he's leading, but that's not relevant -- his position is the right one.

Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, has tried out just about every argument there is, among them:

Clinton's new rules are anything but consistent

  • arguing that delegates from some states don't count as much as others
  • claiming that Obama is trying to deny voters the right to have their voices heard
  • concluding that the process will be over by February 5th
  • attacking Obama supporters who say the race will be over in May or June
  • agreeing that the votes in Michigan and Florida won't impact the nomination
  • saying that the votes in Michigan and Florida should be counted
  • arguing that we must count all the votes while urging superdelegates to overturn the judgment of voters
  • saying the number of electoral votes that a state has should determine should guide superdelgates
  • proclaiming that it's un-American to ignore the will of voters while suggesting pledged delegates should consider switching from Obama to Clinton

This type of absurdity is the mark of a doomed candidacy.

5. Obama's standard for victory has gained wide acceptance, and now even Clinton's own supporters are adopting his standard

It's not just Nancy Pelosi -- a growing number of Clinton supporters are accepting the idea that superdelegates will not overturn the judgment of voters. Specific examples: Maria Cantwell, Ron Sims, Martin O'Malley, Jon Corzine.

These are perhaps the strongest signs yet pointing to the emerging consensus within the Democratic Party: Barack Obama will be the nominee.

6. Barack Obama is closing the gap in the competition for superdelegates

Superdelegates are turning towards Obama. According to today's LA Times:

In December, according to an Associated Press tally, Clinton led Obama by 106 superdelegates. In February, her lead had been cut to 87. As of Thursday, it was 30.

7. Barack Obama has won a virtually insurmountable delegate lead

1,627 is the real magic number -- once Obama hits that number, he'll become the nominee unless there is a coup by superdelegates. And with 1,419 pledged delegates to Clinton's 1250, he's a virtual lock to hit the number, needing just one-third of the remaining delegates.

When all the voting is done, Obama will probably lead by around 150 pledged delegates. But even if he only leads by 100 -- at this point, a worst-case scenario -- Clinton would need 65% of the remaining superdelegates to go her way. Given the growing consensus that superdelegates will not overturn the vote, 65% is unattainable, especially if she loses any of her current superdelegate supporters.

::

Even though there's virtually no chance Hillary Clinton will win the nomination, as long as she remains a candidate, we've got to take her seriously.

Personally, I don't understand why Clinton is remaining in the race. She had a better chance of getting away with the Tale of Bosnian Sniper Fire than she does now of winning.

But it's not my decision to make. Still, saying she's going to lose is not the same as telling her to quit.

And so this bizarre campaign will continue, for another few weeks at least.

"If Richardson is Judas, which Clinton is Jesus?" pt 2

The title of the post is a fitting epitaph for the Clinton era in the Democratic Party. I wish I could take credit for it, but I can't -- the words belongs to Joel Connelly, the top political reporter in the northwest and one of the best in the country. He's now a columnist for the Seattle Post-Intelligencer and his most recent column (digg it) is a devastating appraisal of the Clinton campaign as it heads into its final days.

As Joel argues, whether the Clintons are ready to accept the situation or not, Hillary Clinton's bid for the presidency is in its closing stages -- and they have nobody to blame but themselves.

The miscalculations and misjudgments -- which likely have cost Hillary Clinton the nomination, and Bill Clinton much of his reputation -- are the campaign's own doing.

In years past, the Clintons showed an amazing knack for getting themselves into binds, then escaping tight corners. It has deserted them.

As the saying goes, it ain't over 'til it's over -- but it's pretty close to over. All that's left is for us to finish the job.

Most people think Obama's going to win, and that took the sting out of James Carville's Judas attack. Losers can't be bullies, and a growing number of people see the Clintons as losers -- and Barack Obama as a winner.

The polls don't yet fully reflect this trend, but it's real. Here are some examples:

1. Grassroots enthusiasm much stronger for Barack Obama than Hillary Clinton

In 2007, Hillary Clinton outraised Barack Obama, ~$121 million to ~$107 million. So far in 2008, Obama has outraised Clinton $127 million to $68 million.

More importantly, Obama's fundraising has come from over one million individual donors. Last month, his average contribution is less than $100 -- a remarkable achievement.

Meanwhile, on the campaign trail Barack Obama is a rock star. He fills arenas, drawing 22,000 to a rally last weekend in Pennsylvania.

2. Obama has maintained the same rationale for his candidacy throughout the campaign

Barack Obama is making the same arguments today that he was making earlier in the campaign. Perhaps the best example: the central message of "The Speech" was exactly the same as his Ebenezer Sermon. True, he dealt with a new wrinkle -- the Wright flareup -- but he dealt with it successfully.

Clinton on the other hand has been forced into a kitchen sink strategy. You never know what she'll come up with next -- and neither does she. Case in point: Richard Mellon Scaife.

Clinton, on the hand, blew the Bosnian sniper fire gaffe at every opportunity.

3. Barack Obama quelled concerns from superdelegates by forcefully dispensing with Wright flareup, which could have become a full-scale crisis

Barack Obama's speedy and decisive handling of the Wright flareup is the mark of a winning candidacy. It was the most severe test any candidate has faced during the entire campaign and he passed with high marks all around.

4. Barack Obama has stuck with a simple -- and widely accepted -- definition of what it means to win

Barack Obama hasn't budged an inch from his position that voters should determine the nominee. Perhaps he only takes that position because he's leading, but that's not relevant -- his position is the right one.

Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, has tried out just about every argument there is, among them:

Clinton's new rules are anything but consistent

  • arguing that delegates from some states don't count as much as others
  • claiming that Obama is trying to deny voters the right to have their voices heard
  • concluding that the process will be over by February 5th
  • attacking Obama supporters who say the race will be over in May or June
  • agreeing that the votes in Michigan and Florida won't impact the nomination
  • saying that the votes in Michigan and Florida should be counted
  • arguing that we must count all the votes while urging superdelegates to overturn the judgment of voters
  • saying the number of electoral votes that a state has should determine should guide superdelgates
  • proclaiming that it's un-American to ignore the will of voters while suggesting pledged delegates should consider switching from Obama to Clinton

This type of absurdity is the mark of a doomed candidacy.

5. Obama's standard for victory has gained wide acceptance, and now even Clinton's own supporters are adopting his standard

It's not just Nancy Pelosi -- a growing number of Clinton supporters are accepting the idea that superdelegates will not overturn the judgment of voters. Specific examples: Maria Cantwell, Ron Sims, Martin O'Malley, Jon Corzine.

These are perhaps the strongest signs yet pointing to the emerging consensus within the Democratic Party: Barack Obama will be the nominee.

6. Barack Obama is closing the gap in the competition for superdelegates

Superdelegates are turning towards Obama. According to today's LA Times:

In December, according to an Associated Press tally, Clinton led Obama by 106 superdelegates. In February, her lead had been cut to 87. As of Thursday, it was 30.

7. Barack Obama has won a virtually insurmountable delegate lead

1,627 is the real magic number -- once Obama hits that number, he'll become the nominee unless there is a coup by superdelegates. And with 1,419 pledged delegates to Clinton's 1250, he's a virtual lock to hit the number, needing just one-third of the remaining delegates.

When all the voting is done, Obama will probably lead by around 150 pledged delegates. But even if he only leads by 100 -- at this point, a worst-case scenario -- Clinton would need 65% of the remaining superdelegates to go her way. Given the growing consensus that superdelegates will not overturn the vote, 65% is unattainable, especially if she loses any of her current superdelegate supporters.

::

Even though there's virtually no chance Hillary Clinton will win the nomination, as long as she remains a candidate, we've got to take her seriously.

Personally, I don't understand why Clinton is remaining in the race. She had a better chance of getting away with the Tale of Bosnian Sniper Fire than she does now of winning.

But it's not my decision to make. Still, saying she's going to lose is not the same as telling her to quit.

And so this bizarre campaign will continue, for another few weeks at least.

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