It would still be a miracle if Barack Obama won Pennsylvania

Al Giordano has an excellent post over at The Field detailing three critical reasons why Hillary Clinton is the prohibitive favorite to win in Pennsylvania. (Full disclosure: you have to skip over one of my videos to get to the good stuff.)

The super-short version of Al's post is: (1) There's a lot of Ohio in Pennsylvania. (2) It's a closed primary. (3) Don't forget about the Limbaugh Effect. I know there are polls showing Obama gaining ground there, and no doubt he is, but don't forget, he gained ground in Ohio and Texas too. Bottom-line: stay realistic.

More importantly, Obama doesn't need to win the state -- all he has to do is win at least 40% of the delegates at stake. And even that is a slightly high bar.