ARG has a new post-PA poll Indiana showing Clinton leading Obama 50-45.

So here's my prediction: the media + Clinton camp will spin this as a sign of a Pennsylvania "bump."

In so doing, they will cleverly ignore the fact that in the previous ARG poll, Clinton led 53-44.

So her lead has diminished from +9 in early April to +5 in late April -- a drop of four points.

That drop is reflected in the only other post-PA poll of Indiana -- by Research 2000, which shows Obama leading by 1 point. In late-March/early-April, the same poll showed Clinton with a 3 point lead. So she slipped four points in that poll as well, over the same time frame.

My money is on Clinton to win the Indiana primary, but as an Obama supporter, I'll take this kind of bump any day of the week.

Update: Bump? Major Clinton fundraiser defects to Obama. (h/t: Steven R)