This is my obligatory defend the Clinton campaign post of the month...
Newsweek's Andrew Romano posits that up to $13 million of the $20 million the Clinton campaign says they raised in March could be designated for the general election, meaning that they raised a meager $7 million for the month. If true, that would be a political earthquake and would almost certainly mean the imminent demise of Hillary Clinton's campaign.
Only one problem -- Romano's conjecture is totally wrong.
To understand why, you first need to understand a bit about campaign finance law. Individuals are restricted to giving $2,300 to a candidate per election. The thing is that there are two elections per cycle -- the primary and the general. So the total limit is really $4,600. The catch is that any contribution over $2,300 can only be used in the general -- after the primary.
So if Hillary Clinton were going to the well and raising money from folks who had already given at least $2,300, she wouldn't be able to use any of the new funds.
Romano makes a simple mistake in reading the numbers that causes him to think that two-thirds of Clinton's February fundraising total came from donors who had already "maxed out" for the primary.
It's actually not that hard a mistake to make if you're not an FEC geek. What he did was conflate Clinton's February fundraising total with her end-of-month cash-on-hand total. Making things especially confusing, both numbers in the $30 million range. Here's her cash-on-hand number for the end of February:
Based on this Romano assumes that just one-third of Clinton's February fundraising total was money raised for the primary. But he's looking at the wrong number. He needs to look at her contribution total for February. Here's that number:
FEC reports are confusing, but I have 100% confidence in my numbers. The bottom-line is that nearly all of the money Clinton raised in February was designated for the primary, and almost all of the $20 million she raised in in March will be available for the primary.
In fact, TPM is now reporting that the Clinton campaign is saying almost all of their $20 million is primary money. They wouldn't lie about something like this -- they have to file documents with the FEC in two weeks or so anyway, and lying would kill their credibility.
I've got no doubt that the Clinton campaign is facing a cash crunch, and $20 million probably wasn't enough -- but the $7 million number just isn't right. Too good to be true, at least from my perspective.
© Jed Lewison