Posted by Jed Lewison on Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 9:31 PM Pacific

Turning the education gap into an opportunity

Today, Gallup offered more data confirming the correlation of education levels with general election preferences. Here's the numbers, along with Kerry and Gore for comparison's sake:

As you can see, the gap between the two candidates is large -- double digits in every category except "some college." On balance, Obama is in better position than Clinton, stronger in three of the four categories, falling short only among voters with a high school education or less.

Overall, this confirms that Obama will be the Democratic Party's strongest nominee. Still, I'd like to see him do a lot better among voters with just a high school education. We can't afford a Kerry-like performance.

So why does Hillary Clinton do better than Obama with these voters? Part of the explanation is that these voters genuinely like Hillary Clinton, who knows how to connect with them.

At the same time, these numbers suggest that less-educated voters are reacting against Barack Obama. So what's turning them off? Race? Bad bowling? Cerebral rhetoric? Clinton's attacks?

I'm sure all of those are having an impact, but I think probably the biggest turn-off to these voters is the false Muslim smear -- which more than any other group of voters, these voters believe to be true. Take a look at this data from a recent Pew survey:

It's pretty breathtaking, eh? Those with a high school education or less were three times as likely to believe Obama was a Muslim than college graduates.

Compare these numbers to those of Hillary Clinton. Among those who believe Obama is a Muslim, Clinton trails McCain by 10 points -- a whopping 16 points closer than Obama. Meanwhile, among voters who believe Obama is a Christian, he leads McCain by 8, Clinton by just 3.

I put together a spreadsheet and estimated that most of McCain's owes most of his lead over Obama among these voters to the false Muslim smear, and probably one-third to one-half of the gap between Obama and Clinton versus McCain is a result of the smear.

This is actually good news. To the extent that the education gap is a function of false perceptions, then correcting those false perceptions should mostly erase that gap.

Viewed in that light, a good chunk of the education gap isn't so much a weakness as it is a problem that can be fixed.

In the spin room, I'd call that an opportunity.

Turning the education gap into an opportunity

Today, Gallup offered more data confirming the correlation of education levels with general election preferences. Here's the numbers, along with Kerry and Gore for comparison's sake:

As you can see, the gap between the two candidates is large -- double digits in every category except "some college." On balance, Obama is in better position than Clinton, stronger in three of the four categories, falling short only among voters with a high school education or less.

Overall, this confirms that Obama will be the Democratic Party's strongest nominee. Still, I'd like to see him do a lot better among voters with just a high school education. We can't afford a Kerry-like performance.

So why does Hillary Clinton do better than Obama with these voters? Part of the explanation is that these voters genuinely like Hillary Clinton, who knows how to connect with them.

At the same time, these numbers suggest that less-educated voters are reacting against Barack Obama. So what's turning them off? Race? Bad bowling? Cerebral rhetoric? Clinton's attacks?

I'm sure all of those are having an impact, but I think probably the biggest turn-off to these voters is the false Muslim smear -- which more than any other group of voters, these voters believe to be true. Take a look at this data from a recent Pew survey:

It's pretty breathtaking, eh? Those with a high school education or less were three times as likely to believe Obama was a Muslim than college graduates.

Compare these numbers to those of Hillary Clinton. Among those who believe Obama is a Muslim, Clinton trails McCain by 10 points -- a whopping 16 points closer than Obama. Meanwhile, among voters who believe Obama is a Christian, he leads McCain by 8, Clinton by just 3.

I put together a spreadsheet and estimated that most of McCain's owes most of his lead over Obama among these voters to the false Muslim smear, and probably one-third to one-half of the gap between Obama and Clinton versus McCain is a result of the smear.

This is actually good news. To the extent that the education gap is a function of false perceptions, then correcting those false perceptions should mostly erase that gap.

Viewed in that light, a good chunk of the education gap isn't so much a weakness as it is a problem that can be fixed.

In the spin room, I'd call that an opportunity.

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