Not a question of whether, but how

So this is off-the-cuff -- I reserve the right to change my mind, and welcome any criticism.

My overall take is that at this point it's not a question of whether Barack Obama wins the nomination, it's question of how he wins the nomination.

Here's how I arrive at that conclusion:

First, if Pennsylvania were the only state that mattered, Clinton managed to win by 8 points -- a smaller margin than her Ohio victory of 10.5 points. Moreover, it was in a closed primary, unlike Ohio, where Obama actually won among independent voters who were about one-fifth of the electorate. Clinton won a solid victory, somewhere around 9 or 10 points. Hats off.

Second, Pennsylvania isn't the only state that matters -- it's important, but 95% of the delegates are selected elsewhere.

Third, Barack Obama still has a mortal lock on the pledged delegate battle, which means that he will be the nominee. The superdelegates just aren't going to overturn the popular vote.

Fourth, Hillary Clinton's continued candidacy means that she would rather see John McCain be president than Barack Obama. She's got virtually no path to the nomination. Continuing this campaign will just further polarize the Democratic Party, and draw vital resources away from defeating John McCain -- and other downballot races.

Fifth, although superdelegates could step up and end the campaign right now, Barack Obama will be best served by defeating Hillary Clinton. He does not want to be seen as having relied on party insiders to "rescue" his campaign. He'd be best served by a trickle of superdelegates between now and then.

Sixth, two weeks from now, he will have won -- in North Carolina. As long as he keeps it closer in Indiana than it is in North Carolina, at that time a stampede of superdelegates in his direction will be welcomed and seen as a sign of strength, not weakness. (Of course, if he wins in Indiana, every superdelegate in town will be fighting to jump on board, even Clinton superdelegates.)

Finally, Obama does I think need to hone his message a bit. Clinton comes across as someone who is running for Mayor -- she is pandering, and promising the world to a lot of people. In effect, she is lying: she is making promises that she can't or won't keep. Obama does need to call her on this, and he can do so in a humorous way. I think voters need to see some of her flip flops, especially on NAFTA. Just as importantly, Obama needs some work on his message to women voters who are sticking by Clinton because they see her as a victim who has fought through extraordinary challenges. I'll post more about that tomorrow, probably in the next couple of days.

I'll close by repeating my opening thought: at this point, it isn't a question of whether Barack Obama wins the nomination -- it's a question of how he wins it.