Posted by Jed Lewison on Sat May 24, 2008 at 12:05 AM Pacific

Barack Obama's consistent electability advantage

The conventional wisdom is that Barack Obama was soaring in February, crushing John McCain in poll after poll, while Hillary Clinton struggled far behind. Then came along March and April and changed all that around (according to the CW); suddenly, Clinton was on top and Obama was looking up to her, at least when it came to general election polling against John McCain.

Well, turns out...that's not exactly true. It is the case that Barack Obama tanked (to be blunt) from February to March -- but in every single month this year, he's done better versus John McCain than Hillary Clinton.

Here's a look at a brief analysis I conducted using polls on pollster.com, excluding polls which only had one candidate versus McCain (Data: Obama, Clinton). I sorted the polls by month, and calculated a simple average for each candidate. Here's the data for how each candidate fared against McCain for each month:

January 2008 (11 polls)

  • Clinton: McCain +2.1% (44.9C, 47.0M)
  • Obama: McCain +0.5% (44.8O, 45.4M)

February 2008 (25 polls)

  • Clinton: McCain +1.9% (44.4C, 46.3M)
  • Obama: Obama +4.0% (46.90, 42.9M)

March 2008 (31 polls)

  • Clinton: McCain +2.2% (44.3C, 46.4M)
  • Obama: McCain +1.3% (44.1O, 45.3M)

April 2008 (36 polls)

  • Clinton: Clinton +0.2% (44.9C, 44.8M)
  • Obama: Obama +0.5% (45.1O, 44.6M)

May 2008 (21 polls)

  • Clinton: Clinton +1.5% (45.9C, 44.3M)
  • Obama: Obama +2.5% (46.1O, 43.7M)

(The numbers don't all add up due to rounding.)

As you can see, versus McCain, Obama was stronger than Clinton in each month, either leading by more, or losing by less. Overall, he led 51% of the polls and tied in another 9%; Clinton led 41% and tied in 7%.

Even though March and April were tough months for Obama, especially after his exceptional February, he did better than Clinton -- and in April, better than McCain. And now, three weeks into May, it looks like he's mostly made back most of the ground he lost in March due to the Wright flareup.

Barack Obama's consistent electability advantage

The conventional wisdom is that Barack Obama was soaring in February, crushing John McCain in poll after poll, while Hillary Clinton struggled far behind. Then came along March and April and changed all that around (according to the CW); suddenly, Clinton was on top and Obama was looking up to her, at least when it came to general election polling against John McCain.

Well, turns out...that's not exactly true. It is the case that Barack Obama tanked (to be blunt) from February to March -- but in every single month this year, he's done better versus John McCain than Hillary Clinton.

Here's a look at a brief analysis I conducted using polls on pollster.com, excluding polls which only had one candidate versus McCain (Data: Obama, Clinton). I sorted the polls by month, and calculated a simple average for each candidate. Here's the data for how each candidate fared against McCain for each month:

January 2008 (11 polls)

  • Clinton: McCain +2.1% (44.9C, 47.0M)
  • Obama: McCain +0.5% (44.8O, 45.4M)

February 2008 (25 polls)

  • Clinton: McCain +1.9% (44.4C, 46.3M)
  • Obama: Obama +4.0% (46.90, 42.9M)

March 2008 (31 polls)

  • Clinton: McCain +2.2% (44.3C, 46.4M)
  • Obama: McCain +1.3% (44.1O, 45.3M)

April 2008 (36 polls)

  • Clinton: Clinton +0.2% (44.9C, 44.8M)
  • Obama: Obama +0.5% (45.1O, 44.6M)

May 2008 (21 polls)

  • Clinton: Clinton +1.5% (45.9C, 44.3M)
  • Obama: Obama +2.5% (46.1O, 43.7M)

(The numbers don't all add up due to rounding.)

As you can see, versus McCain, Obama was stronger than Clinton in each month, either leading by more, or losing by less. Overall, he led 51% of the polls and tied in another 9%; Clinton led 41% and tied in 7%.

Even though March and April were tough months for Obama, especially after his exceptional February, he did better than Clinton -- and in April, better than McCain. And now, three weeks into May, it looks like he's mostly made back most of the ground he lost in March due to the Wright flareup.

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