Barack Obama's delegate math, still unbeatable

Now, I know numbers and tables and charts aren't the most inspiring thing in the world -- usually. But I think even if you hated math in school, you can find a place in your heart for the following data.

Very briefly, what this chart shows is where the numbers stand now and where they would be likely to stand (given current superdelegate totals) after Tuesday's primaries and the the conclusion of voting and selection of add-on superdelegates.

Of course, since between now and each projection the superdelegate totals are likely to change, these aren't predictions of where we will be as much as guides as to how many superdelegates Barack Obama really needs to win over in order to lock down the nomination.

The projections are very conservative, giving Clinton an eight delegate advantage in the upcoming primaries and a six delegate advantage on the add-on column.

The bottom-line is even with these very conservative assumptions about Obama's performance relative to Clinton among pledged delegates and add-on delegates, Barack Obama still has a dominant lead.

At this point, the only way Clinton can win is if a significant number of Obama's current superdelegate supporters abandon him and support her instead. But there's no indication that will happen. In fact, with Joe Andrew's endorsement of Barack Obama this week, the opposite seems to be happening. Moreover, Politico, the New York Times, and the Wall Street Journal have all reported this week that superdelegates are inclined to support the pledged delegate winner -- and that means Barack Obama.

The real question isn't whether or if Barack Obama will win -- the question is when and how. Will enough superdelegates endorse him so that he can wrap it up on May 20, when he secures a majority of pledged delegates? Or will they wait into early June? Either way, Obama is winning. Will it be in mid- to late-May, or early-June? For the answer to that, we've got to stay tuned.