Chuck runs through the scenarios for tonight, including how Barack Obama secures the pledged delegate majority, even if Michigan and Florida are included. (I don't think he includes the Edwards delegates from Florida, which is why he says Obama needs 31 or 32 from Oregon to cross that threshold.)

A couple other observations:

• The symbolism of Iowa isn't just about returning to where it all started -- Iowa is 91% white non-Hispanic. The point couldn't be more clear: he does not have a problem with whites. To be sure, there are certain regions of the country where he has not done well with whites during the primary. But as today's poll in Pennsylvania shows, primary performance does not necessarily indicate general election performance.
• Barack has an outside shot of winning enough pledged delegates tonight to be able to reach the magic number of 2,025.5 without getting the support of any new superdelegates. (He still wouldn't reach the magic number until June 3, however.)

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