Posted by Jed Lewison on Sun May 11, 2008 at 5:25 PM Pacific

Dwindling lead strengthens case that McCain meddlers won Indiana

As with Ohio, the results in Indiana are narrowing. Hillary Clinton now leads by just under 1.1% -- down from 1.4% on election night. It won't make a difference for the nomination battle, but it does strengthen the argument that were it not for McCain supporters, Hillary Clinton would not have won Indiana.

Let me run through numbers for you based on the new vote totals.

Hillary Clinton has 644,594 votes and Barack Obama has 630,599 votes
About 83,500 McCain supporters voted for Clinton
- According to the exit poll, if Clinton were to win the nomination, 16% of primary voters would vote for McCain, 41% of whom voted for Clinton in the primary. As a result, 6.6% (16% * 41%) of Indiana primary voters voted for Clinton but plan to vote for McCain in the fall even if she wins the nomination
- 6.6% of Indiana primary voters is 83,563. (13% of Clinton's total vote.)
About 27,500 McCain supporters voted for Obama
- Also according to the exit poll, if Obama were to win the nomination, 18% of primary voters would vote for McCain, 12% of whom voted for Obama in the primary. As a result, 2.2% (18% * 12%) of Indiana primary voters voted for Obama but plan to vote for McCain in the fall even if he wins the nomination.
- 2.2% of Indiana primary voters is 27,544. (4.4% of Obama's total vote.)
After factoring out the McCain supporters who voted for each candidate:
- Clinton received 560,941 votes from sincere supporters (48.2% of the vote)
- Obama received 603,055 votes from sincere supporters (51.8% of the vote)
Therefore, among voters who are not committed McCain supporters, Barack Obama won a 3.6 point victory, a swing of nearly 5 points from the current vote tally.

Keep in mind I'm not taking a position on why these McCain supporters voted for Clinton. It doesn't matter to me whether it was the Limbaugh Effect or whether they were honestly expressing their choice for second-place. What matters is they don't intend to vote for either Obama or Clinton in November, and I think any fair analysis of Indiana must factor these voters out of the equation.

As a postscript, what about North Carolina? Using the same method as above, 16% of Clinton voters in North Carolina were actually McCain supporters, compared with 3% of Obama supporters. Factoring out the McCain meddlers for both both candidates, overall Obama would have won 61%-39%, a 22-point win instead of 57%-42%, a 15-point win.

Let me run through numbers for you based on the new vote totals.

Hillary Clinton has 644,594 votes and Barack Obama has 630,599 votes
About 83,500 McCain supporters voted for Clinton
- According to the exit poll, if Clinton were to win the nomination, 16% of primary voters would vote for McCain, 41% of whom voted for Clinton in the primary. As a result, 6.6% (16% * 41%) of Indiana primary voters voted for Clinton but plan to vote for McCain in the fall even if she wins the nomination
- 6.6% of Indiana primary voters is 83,563. (13% of Clinton's total vote.)
About 27,500 McCain supporters voted for Obama
- Also according to the exit poll, if Obama were to win the nomination, 18% of primary voters would vote for McCain, 12% of whom voted for Obama in the primary. As a result, 2.2% (18% * 12%) of Indiana primary voters voted for Obama but plan to vote for McCain in the fall even if he wins the nomination.
- 2.2% of Indiana primary voters is 27,544. (4.4% of Obama's total vote.)
After factoring out the McCain supporters who voted for each candidate:
- Clinton received 560,941 votes from sincere supporters (48.2% of the vote)
- Obama received 603,055 votes from sincere supporters (51.8% of the vote)
Therefore, among voters who are not committed McCain supporters, Barack Obama won a 3.6 point victory, a swing of nearly 5 points from the current vote tally.