Posted by Jed Lewison on Tue May 6, 2008 at 5:21 PM Pacific

Indiana: More than 1 in 8 Clinton voters actually support John McCain

Based on numbers from the Indiana exit poll (via MSNBC), I determined that 13% of Clinton voters in Indiana actually plan to vote for John McCain in November, nearly three times the number of Obama voters who plan to vote for McCain.

As we assess the election returns tonight, it is imperative that we factor out pro-McCain voters for both candidates. The exit poll will continue to be tweaked as the night goes along, but based on these preliminary numbers, 13.4% of Clinton's total vote should be discounted and 4.9% of Obama's vote should be discounted.

Effectively, for Clinton to say she won without the help of pro-McCain Republicans, she needs about 53% of the vote.

Update: Just saw a chart on MSNBC that might explain why some of these pro-McCain voters are casting ballots for Clinton -- 58% of Republicans there think he is more likely to beat McCain than Clinton compared to 37% vice-versa.

Update 2: Via Ben Smith, Jonathan Chait takes another look at the data, estimating (correctly, I think) that about 7% of all Indiana voters were McCain supporters for Clinton. The number for Obama is about 2.5%.

Update 3: I've also written up how Republicans overall voted, regardless of whether they support Clinton. The key point is that 4.5% of Indiana voters were Republicans for Obama, exactly the same as it has been throughout the campaign, even when the GOP primary was still contested. Meanwhile, more than 5% were Republicans for Clinton, well more than twice her average in January and February primaries.

Update 4, 11PM Pacific: Clinton "wins" Indiana without Limbaugh-proof majority

Clinton is the apparent winner of Indiana, but she has fallen short of the the 53% that she needed to be able to declare victory without the support of pro-McCain voters. It looks like a 51-49 victory for Clinton. Excluding the pro-McCain voters for each candidate, however, Obama actually won a bit over 51% of the vote.

That won't mean a thing as far as delegates are concerned, but it's an important thing to remember when analyzing the "victory": there is one and one reason Clinton won in Indiana -- pro-McCain Republicans.

On the night, Obama look set for a net gain of 13 delegates (+15 in NC, -2 in Indiana). As Tim Russert said tonight on MSNBC, we know now who the Democratic nominee will be: Barack Obama. It's over.