Posted by Jed Lewison on Sat May 24, 2008 at 9:01 AM Pacific

More like the third period

Marc Ambinder passes along stats touted by the Clinton campaign, characterizing them thusly: "Basically, we won the second half."

Since March 4:

Hillary votes: 6,519,685
Obama votes: 6,007,744
Margin: Hillary +511,941

Hillary pledged delegates: 510
Obama pledged delegates: 495
Margin: Hillary +15 delegates

Hillary contests: 7 (OH, RI, TX, PA, IN, WV, KY)
Obama contests: 6 (VT, WY, MS, GU, NC, OR)

Fine, except:

  • 1,005 delegates is less than one-third of the pledged delegates, so it's really more like the third period (of a hockey game).
  • +15 net margin in pledged delegates? Even if that number is right...it's not enough to change the fundamental math.
  • The calendar in the "third period" was much more favorable to Hillary than Obama
  • She only won Indiana with the help of McCainiacs
  • The popular vote metric is meaningless, but if it weren't meaningless, I'd offer a reminder that 362,000+ McCainiacs voted for Clinton.

Then there's always the part about how Barack Obama won the pledged delegate majority in the second half or third period or whatever we're calling it.

And that fact pretty much will end the game.

More like the third period

Marc Ambinder passes along stats touted by the Clinton campaign, characterizing them thusly: "Basically, we won the second half."

Since March 4:

Hillary votes: 6,519,685
Obama votes: 6,007,744
Margin: Hillary +511,941

Hillary pledged delegates: 510
Obama pledged delegates: 495
Margin: Hillary +15 delegates

Hillary contests: 7 (OH, RI, TX, PA, IN, WV, KY)
Obama contests: 6 (VT, WY, MS, GU, NC, OR)

Fine, except:

  • 1,005 delegates is less than one-third of the pledged delegates, so it's really more like the third period (of a hockey game).
  • +15 net margin in pledged delegates? Even if that number is right...it's not enough to change the fundamental math.
  • The calendar in the "third period" was much more favorable to Hillary than Obama
  • She only won Indiana with the help of McCainiacs
  • The popular vote metric is meaningless, but if it weren't meaningless, I'd offer a reminder that 362,000+ McCainiacs voted for Clinton.

Then there's always the part about how Barack Obama won the pledged delegate majority in the second half or third period or whatever we're calling it.

And that fact pretty much will end the game.

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