Chuck Todd and the MSNBC political team catch another important ramification of the Edwards endorsement: on Tuesday, when Barack passes 1,627 pledged delegates, securing a majority, he will also win enough delegates to secure a majority of even if Michigan and Florida.

Here's their math, including the Edwards delegates:

  • Including Michigan and Florida, the pledged delegate majority is 1,784
  • They estimate Obama will have at least 1,667 pledged delegates after voting ends on Tuesday (it will probably be higher).
  • Under the most Clinton-friendly scenario, Obama will get 67 delegates out of Florida and 55 delegates out of Michigan for a total of 122.
  • 1,667 + 122 = 1,789 -- which would put him just over the top.

Making the argument even stronger, they didn't add in the 13 pledged delegates that Edwards would get out of Florida in any deal -- giving Obama at least 1,802 delegates by Tuesday night.

Moreover, their scenario is conservative in other ways: it's unlikely that the final Florida/Michigan deal will be this friendly to Clinton; it's unlikely that Obama only picks up 50 delegates on Tuesday; and MSNBC's baseline pledged delegate count currently gives Obama slightly fewer pledged delegates than do other counts.

::

Update: I've taken a thorough look at the Michigan and Florida numbers, and even if their delegations are seated according to Clinton's rules, it will still be essentially impossible for her to win the nomination.

Home Page | Archives

All rights reserved. Not affiliated with any political campaign or candidate.