Posted by Jed Lewison on Thu May 8, 2008 at 9:24 AM Pacific
“On May 20 we’re going to declare victory”
Politico's David Paul Kuhn reports that the Obama campaign is planning to declare victory on May 20 after Kentucky and Oregon voters put him past the mark of 1,627 pledged delegates, guaranteeing him a majority of the democratically selected delegates.
“On May 20 we’re going to declare victory,” said an Obama senior advisor who asked that his name be withheld to speak candidly, adding that after those contests they will be “the ones with the most pledged delegates and the most popular votes.”
While the nature of that declaration of victory is “still developing,” in the advisor’s words, the Obama campaign contends that the winner of a majority of pledged delegates should be the party nominee.
“Senator Obama, our campaign and our supporters believe pledged delegates is the most legitimate metric for determining how this race has unfolded,” wrote Obama campaign manager David Plouffe Wednesday in a memo to superdelegates. “It is simply the ratification of the DNC rules - your rules - which we built this campaign and our strategy around.”
I like the Obama plan. By focusing on the May 20 date, the Obama campaign is effectively establishing a decision timeline for the undeclared superdelegates, and could very well impel enough of them to act that it will render the Michigan / Florida discussion moot (if it hasn't been resolved already).
Kuhn, however, expresses concern:
It’s a train wreck waiting to happen, with one candidate claiming to be the nominee while the other vigorously denies it, all predicated on an argument over what exactly constitutes the finish line of the primary race.
The Obama campaign agrees with the Democratic National Committee, which pegs a winning majority at 2,025 pledged delegates and superdelegates—a figure that excludes the penalized Florida and Michigan delegations. The Clinton campaign, on the other hand, insists the winner will need 2,209 to cinch the nomination—a tally that includes Florida and Michigan.
My assessment is more optimistic. At a minimum, on May 20, Obama will become the pledged delegate winner. Although Kuhn flatly states that Obama won't hit 2,025, I wouldn't be shocked if he did. While the odds are probably against it, in politics things happen quickly, and once Obama approaches that number, superdelegates who are either on the fence or have been waiting to come out in support of him will flood in his direction -- nobody wants to the last one to endorse.
If such a superdelegate stampede does unfold, the Obama campaign will have so many moving his way they won't know what to do with 'em. And whatever number of the day the Clinton camp happens to be floating won't matter because he'll be a lock to achieve that number as well. (Remember that not too long ago, Clinton herself accepted 2,025.)
Now it's up the superdelegates to support their party's eventual nominee in that effort. They have it in their power to enable voters to bring this process to a close. They also have the power to retain the decision for themselves, but they'd be crazy to do that.
It's not that they are bad people or that they will make a bad decision. No, they'd be crazy because they have an opportunity to let the voters end a process that begun over four months ago in Iowa, and there could be no better narrative than that for Obama as he heads into the general election.
No matter what superdelegates choose to do, May 20 will be a day of huge celebration. But if enough of them step up, they can let Oregon finish the race off -- for good.