Posted by Jed Lewison on Sat May 3, 2008 at 10:35 AM Pacific

Superdelegate trends

This is pretty telling -- about six months ago, two months before the first ballot was cast in Iowa, the New York Times reported that Barack Obama was trailing Hillary Clinton by 100 superdelegates, 159-59. Today, he trails by just 23, 267-244.

Here's another way of looking at those numbers:

  • Supers who decided by Nov. 8: 159 for Clinton and 59 for Obama.
  • Supers who decided between then and now: 108 for Clinton and 185 for Obama.

Do the math and you find that 63% of superdelegates who have decided since November 8 have gone with with Obama. That is a pretty powerful trend in Obama's favor.

More recently, however, it's true that his pace has slowed. According to Democratic Convention Watch, on April 6, the superdelegate split was 245 for Clinton and 221 for Obama. So since early April, Obama has gained 23 superdelegates to Clinton's 22, just over 50%.

Still, viewed in light of the fact that Barack Obama does not need to win a majority of remaining superdelegates to secure the nomination, I'd say this is a pretty powerful trend in his favor.

Superdelegate trends

This is pretty telling -- about six months ago, two months before the first ballot was cast in Iowa, the New York Times reported that Barack Obama was trailing Hillary Clinton by 100 superdelegates, 159-59. Today, he trails by just 23, 267-244.

Here's another way of looking at those numbers:

  • Supers who decided by Nov. 8: 159 for Clinton and 59 for Obama.
  • Supers who decided between then and now: 108 for Clinton and 185 for Obama.

Do the math and you find that 63% of superdelegates who have decided since November 8 have gone with with Obama. That is a pretty powerful trend in Obama's favor.

More recently, however, it's true that his pace has slowed. According to Democratic Convention Watch, on April 6, the superdelegate split was 245 for Clinton and 221 for Obama. So since early April, Obama has gained 23 superdelegates to Clinton's 22, just over 50%.

Still, viewed in light of the fact that Barack Obama does not need to win a majority of remaining superdelegates to secure the nomination, I'd say this is a pretty powerful trend in his favor.

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