That Zogby Indiana Poll

You might have seen this Zogby poll of Indiana voters showing Obama leading Clinton by one point, 43%-42%. I'm skeptical of the poll's accuracy because it is out of line with every other poll taken in the past week. In those polls, Clinton averages 49% and Obama averages 41%.

In addition, Zogby doesn't have the greatest track record this season. They've polled in 11 contests, accurately picking the winner in 8. That sounds good, but if you look under the hood, Zogby has been a mostly hit or miss affair. In 5 of the 11 races, the final margin was off by double digits from Zogby's projection (OH 10, GA 13, SC 14, NH 16, and CA 21 points). In one of the races it was off by 5 points (NJ) which is pretty close. And in the other five Zogby was spot on, getting within one point in four races (NV, IA, PA, and TX) and two points in a third (MO).

So while I'm rooting for Zogby to be right, I wouldn't count on it.