Posted by Jed Lewison on Wed May 7, 2008 at 6:39 AM Pacific

The Obama Nomination Countdown

These guys probably can't vote until 2020, but they're already working for change in Charlotte.

I've updated the sidebar, removing the magic number tracker and other items in favor of a new "Obama Nomination Countdown."

The key feature of the nomination countdown is a conservative projection of the remaining pledged delegates and add-on superdelegates. Once those are taken into account, it become apparent just how close Obama is the nomination.

To secure the nomination, Obama must win a mere 18% of the remaining delegates (which include undeclared superdelegates and the 19 Edwards delegates). It would take a staggering turn of events for him to fail to reach that threshold. In fact, it is almost certain that at least 18% already support him, but just haven't announced their support. (Hence the term undeclared.)

As Obama moves towards becoming the presumptive nominee, and as we begin to say goodbye to the primary campaign, things will calm down on the political front. Obama will spend time introducing himself to voters in key battleground states.

He'll probably clash with McCain will from time to time, but with any luck, things won't really heat up again until the convention in August and then for a 10 week general election campaign.

And then, in just over seven months -- President Barack Obama.

The Obama Nomination Countdown

These guys probably can't vote until 2020, but they're already working for change in Charlotte.

I've updated the sidebar, removing the magic number tracker and other items in favor of a new "Obama Nomination Countdown."

The key feature of the nomination countdown is a conservative projection of the remaining pledged delegates and add-on superdelegates. Once those are taken into account, it become apparent just how close Obama is the nomination.

To secure the nomination, Obama must win a mere 18% of the remaining delegates (which include undeclared superdelegates and the 19 Edwards delegates). It would take a staggering turn of events for him to fail to reach that threshold. In fact, it is almost certain that at least 18% already support him, but just haven't announced their support. (Hence the term undeclared.)

As Obama moves towards becoming the presumptive nominee, and as we begin to say goodbye to the primary campaign, things will calm down on the political front. Obama will spend time introducing himself to voters in key battleground states.

He'll probably clash with McCain will from time to time, but with any luck, things won't really heat up again until the convention in August and then for a 10 week general election campaign.

And then, in just over seven months -- President Barack Obama.