Posted by Jed Lewison on Mon May 19, 2008 at 4:06 PM Pacific

The victory Barack Obama should declare

Welcome to Bizarro World: there's a growing consensus that Barack Obama should not declare victory tomorrow when he secures a majority of pledged delegates. The essential argument: if Obama says the contest is over, he will appear arrogant, and there will be a backlash from Clinton supporters.

With all due respect to Clinton supporters, they should not be the exclusive drivers of Obama's decision here, if for no other reason than the ones that will lead the backlash against him are already trying to undermine him and will never support him.

The thing that should drive Obama's decision with respect to a declaration of victory is simple: the state of the campaign. So let's review the facts.

  1. Neither candidate actually becomes the nominee until August at the convention. Until that point, the question is whether one of the candidates emerges as the "presumptive" nominee.
  2. The Democratic Party has no formal definition of presumptive nominee, and the very word itself denies finality; presumption expresses a probability.
  3. Any reasonable observe would conclude that Barack Obama is already the presumptive nominee. (Since Edwards' endorsement, I have yet to hear any remotely plausible argument for how Clinton wins the nomination.)

So if Barack Obama is already the presumptive nominee (a fact which both Bush and McCain clearly understand), what is the debate about?

I think the answer is legitimacy. And that's why it's so important that Barack Obama declare a victory tomorrow.

After tomorrow, he can -- and I think he will -- say that that he has won the primaries and caucues. When he crosses the pledged delegate majority threshold, the voters will have spoken, and to let that moment pass without noting it would be an insult to the majority of Democratic voters who have chosen Barack Obama.

Yes, the process will continue, and his final margin will grow (or contract). But the outcome of the primaries and caucuses will finally be secure.

To be sure, he doesn't need to call himself the presumptive nominee. He can leave that to arrogant fools like me.

And even if he wanted to, he couldn't say the campaign is over -- even if Clinton withdraws tomorrow, it won't be formally over until he becomes the nominee in August.

But it is important that tomorrow he spotlight his victory in the democratic part of the Democratic Party's nomination process. That victory is the biggest reason why he has won a clear lead in the superdelegate battle. In the end, that victory will be the reason why he wins the nomination.

So yes, Obama should not bigfoot all over things, and he should not needlessly antagonize Clinton supporters, but he also should not shy away from celebrating the huge accomplishment that we will mark tomorrow.

It's not a cause for gloating, but neither is it irrelevant. Tomorrow, whether or not you include Michigan and Florida, he secures a majority of pledged delegates.

And that unchangeable fact is what gives him the legitimacy any candidate would need to become the nominee of the Democratic Party. He will win because the people have chosen him.

To ignore the significance of his accomplishment would be foolish. And to belittle it would be the true arrogance.

The victory Barack Obama should declare

Welcome to Bizarro World: there's a growing consensus that Barack Obama should not declare victory tomorrow when he secures a majority of pledged delegates. The essential argument: if Obama says the contest is over, he will appear arrogant, and there will be a backlash from Clinton supporters.

With all due respect to Clinton supporters, they should not be the exclusive drivers of Obama's decision here, if for no other reason than the ones that will lead the backlash against him are already trying to undermine him and will never support him.

The thing that should drive Obama's decision with respect to a declaration of victory is simple: the state of the campaign. So let's review the facts.

  1. Neither candidate actually becomes the nominee until August at the convention. Until that point, the question is whether one of the candidates emerges as the "presumptive" nominee.
  2. The Democratic Party has no formal definition of presumptive nominee, and the very word itself denies finality; presumption expresses a probability.
  3. Any reasonable observe would conclude that Barack Obama is already the presumptive nominee. (Since Edwards' endorsement, I have yet to hear any remotely plausible argument for how Clinton wins the nomination.)

So if Barack Obama is already the presumptive nominee (a fact which both Bush and McCain clearly understand), what is the debate about?

I think the answer is legitimacy. And that's why it's so important that Barack Obama declare a victory tomorrow.

After tomorrow, he can -- and I think he will -- say that that he has won the primaries and caucues. When he crosses the pledged delegate majority threshold, the voters will have spoken, and to let that moment pass without noting it would be an insult to the majority of Democratic voters who have chosen Barack Obama.

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