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Tue May 20, 3:02 PM Pacific

They just won't give it up

Jake Tapper asks Barack Obama:

You're likely to be the Democratic nominee but you will also likely lose Kentucky overwhelmingly tonight, and one of the reasons for the likely loss is what's been evident in previous primaries -- Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia -- your message is not resonating with white working class voters. Do you acknowledge that this is a problem and how do you intend on remedying that for the general election?

I guess Oregon doesn't count? It's true that 88% of Kentuckians are white non-Hispanics, but so are 81% of Oregonians. As Andrew Sullivan noted yesterday:

Male median income in Oregon: $41,536; Kentucky: $39,595; Female median income in Oregon: $32,390; Kentucky: $29,392. Oregon is slightly more prosperous than Kentucky, but its share of blue collar jobs is not far off Kentucky's.

The gap is a little bit bigger if you look at just the white, non-Hispanic population, but not big enough to validate the premise of Tapper's question. Moreover, as this poll from Pennsylvania shows, Tapper's assumption that primary results forecast general election performance is flawed: Obama now leads McCain by eight points in the Keystone State.

As for the difference between Kentucky and Oregon, it seems that regional and cultural differences would be the biggest factor to consider. It's also relevant that Obama has campaigned far more extensively in Oregon than Kentucky.

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