Posted by Jed Lewison on Sun May 18, 2008 at 4:53 PM Pacific

Tuesday will be the day the primaries were won

A few more thoughts on Halperin's dissent from reality:

  • The issue isn't whether Barack Obama actually becomes the nominee on Tuesday -- that can't happen until August, at the convention. The question is whether Barack can flatly state that he will win the nomination, without fear of contradiction.
  • Now that Edwards has endorsed, Clinton's last hope (Michigan and Florida) is effectively off the table. Obama could fairly make the claim today that he will be the nominee.
  • On Tuesday, when he secures the pledged delegate majority (even including Michigan and Florida) the math will be even more solid, and more importantly, the last major milestone will have been crossed -- one which undeclared superdelegates have already said will guide their votes.
  • The pledged delegate majority isn't some arbitrary statistic invented by Barack Obama. It's a milestone that many superdelegates themselves say they recognize -- and it closes the final door to the Clinton candidacy, short of her concession or of the nominating convention itself.

Whatever Barack Obama says or doesn't say on Tuesday, there's one thing that even Mark Halperin won't be able to dispute: as of Tuesday, Barack will have won the primaries and caucuses, fair and square. And once that has happened, there's no way the superdelegates are going to turn things back.

If it's not over now, it will be then.

Tuesday will be the day the primaries were won

A few more thoughts on Halperin's dissent from reality:

  • The issue isn't whether Barack Obama actually becomes the nominee on Tuesday -- that can't happen until August, at the convention. The question is whether Barack can flatly state that he will win the nomination, without fear of contradiction.
  • Now that Edwards has endorsed, Clinton's last hope (Michigan and Florida) is effectively off the table. Obama could fairly make the claim today that he will be the nominee.
  • On Tuesday, when he secures the pledged delegate majority (even including Michigan and Florida) the math will be even more solid, and more importantly, the last major milestone will have been crossed -- one which undeclared superdelegates have already said will guide their votes.
  • The pledged delegate majority isn't some arbitrary statistic invented by Barack Obama. It's a milestone that many superdelegates themselves say they recognize -- and it closes the final door to the Clinton candidacy, short of her concession or of the nominating convention itself.

Whatever Barack Obama says or doesn't say on Tuesday, there's one thing that even Mark Halperin won't be able to dispute: as of Tuesday, Barack will have won the primaries and caucuses, fair and square. And once that has happened, there's no way the superdelegates are going to turn things back.

If it's not over now, it will be then.

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