...I'm not sure how much confidence to have in Zogby.

Here's the new numbers, based on surveys from Friday and Saturday:

• North Carolina: Obama 48%, Clinton 39%
• Indiana: Obama 43%, Clinton 41%

The North Carolina numbers aren't that far out line with other polls, but the Indiana numbers are complete outliers. In fact, Zogby is the only polling outfit to have shown Obama with a lead in any Indiana poll since April 24 -- before Wright's weekend media tour.

Between that April 24 poll and the current Zogby poll, there have been six other polls by different pollsters, all showing Clinton with a lead. Combined, those polls have averaged just under 8%.

So the Zogby Indiana numbers are not in keeping with any other poll. On the other hand, the Zogby poll is the only poll that was conducted entirely after Obama's "divorce" from Rev. Wright.

In the run-up to the Pennsylvania primary, Zogby conducted a tracking poll. Their results released on the Sunday before election day showed Clinton with a 3-point (46-43 lead). The next day, Clinton widened her lead in the poll to 48-42 and by election day the poll projected a 51-41 result, which captured the margin perfectly.

For the final bit of Zogby perspective, yesterday I noted:

In addition, Zogby doesn't have the greatest track record this season. They've polled in 11 contests, accurately picking the winner in 8. That sounds good, but if you look under the hood, Zogby has been a mostly hit or miss affair. In 5 of the 11 races, the final margin was off by double digits from Zogby's projection (OH 10, GA 13, SC 14, NH 16, and CA 21 points). In one of the races it was off by 5 points (NJ) which is pretty close. And in the other five Zogby was spot on, getting within one point in four races (NV, IA, PA, and TX) and two points in a third (MO).

So while I'm rooting for Zogby to be right, I wouldn't count on it.

I think other polls will come out today and tomorrow, and I won't be surprised if they show Clinton leading. I still predict that she'll win Indiana, but if another couple of polls confirm Zogby's numbers, perhaps we're looking at an upset.