Posted by Jed Lewison on Sun Jun 22, 2008 at 9:07 PM Pacific

Iraq fatigue

December 2006 was the fourth deadliest month of the Iraq war for American military forces -- there were 112 casualties. At the time, however, according to a WaPo/ABC survey, just 34% of the public thought we were winning, while 52% thought we were losing. Nonetheless, 48% wanted to stay, and 48% wanted to withdraw.

Flash forward 18 months to June 2008 and casualties are way down -- 18 so far this month. Overall, 38% now think we are winning and 46% think we are losing, shrinking an 18 point gap to 8 points. Nonetheless, just 41% want to stay compared to 55% who want to withdraw.

Here's a more detailed look at the trend lines from WaPo/ABC surveys:

Jun '08: 41% stay, 55% withdraw; 38% winning, 46% losing
Sep '07: 43% stay, 54% withdraw; 34% winning, 48% losing
Apr '07: 42% stay, 56% withdraw; 32% winning, 53% losing
Dec '06: 48% stay, 48% withdraw; 34% winning, 52% losing
Aug '05: 54% stay, 44% withdraw; 51% winning, 38% losing

This, I think, demonstrates the fundamental miscalculation John McCain makes when he says it isn't "too important" when troops come home, that all that matters is casualty levels.

The problem with McCain's reasoning is that he seems to think the explanation for why we are in Iraq is self-evident; it's not. Simply reducing death rates is not a sufficient reason to remain there, and the argument that we are combating terrorists who seek to attack the United States is about as credible as the claim that we invaded Iraq to stop the spread of WMD.

The polling numbers reflect this; even though people think we are doing better in Iraq than we were 18 months ago, more people want to leave. I think the general attitude is that we've been there for five years and we still don't really know what we're fighting for.

An interesting thing to keep an eye will be the initiative by U.S. oil companies to secure management contracts for Iraqi oil fields. Will this become McCain's rationale for remaining in Iraq? I wouldn't be terribly surprised -- after all, McCain has already made a similar case.