Posted by Jed Lewison on Mon Jun 2, 2008 at 3:44 AM Pacific

Why this won't go to the convention

Donna Brazile on the Rules and Bylaws Committee's Michigan vote on Saturday:

The Clinton campaign went in with 13 declared superdelegates. Obama had nine. He walked away yesterday, if you look at the final vote, with 19 people taking his position.

Chuck Todd made a similar point, noting the fact that Don Fowler -- a former DNC Chair and a supporter of Hillary Clinton -- had supported the compromise position on Michigan along with four other Clinton supporters. The message from Fowler, Todd said, was "Guys, it's over."

The point is that Hillary Clinton can reserve every right she wants, but she has absolutely no chance of winning in either the credentials committee or on the floor on Denver.

A lot of Clinton supporters have voiced their outrage at Obama for what happened on Saturday. But before they do they should consider:

  1. The Clinton campaign itself supported the Florida compromise.
  2. Among Clinton supporters on the RBC, 5 supported the compromise and 8 opposed it.

The RBC decision on Saturday wasn't just Obama supporters -- it was the entire party, including Clinton supporters. If Clinton wants to fight it at credentials, she can go right ahead. But as the vote at the RBC shows, she'd also lose the vote at credentials -- by an even wider margin.

Clinton can bluff all she want, but on Tuesday, when Barack Obama takes the stage in St. Paul, Minnesota having achieved the magic number -- and thereby having secured the Democratic nomination -- it will all be over. After that point, there will be no turning back.

The Democratic Party will have its nominee.

Why this won't go to the convention

Donna Brazile on the Rules and Bylaws Committee's Michigan vote on Saturday:

The Clinton campaign went in with 13 declared superdelegates. Obama had nine. He walked away yesterday, if you look at the final vote, with 19 people taking his position.

Chuck Todd made a similar point, noting the fact that Don Fowler -- a former DNC Chair and a supporter of Hillary Clinton -- had supported the compromise position on Michigan along with four other Clinton supporters. The message from Fowler, Todd said, was "Guys, it's over."

The point is that Hillary Clinton can reserve every right she wants, but she has absolutely no chance of winning in either the credentials committee or on the floor on Denver.

A lot of Clinton supporters have voiced their outrage at Obama for what happened on Saturday. But before they do they should consider:

  1. The Clinton campaign itself supported the Florida compromise.
  2. Among Clinton supporters on the RBC, 5 supported the compromise and 8 opposed it.

The RBC decision on Saturday wasn't just Obama supporters -- it was the entire party, including Clinton supporters. If Clinton wants to fight it at credentials, she can go right ahead. But as the vote at the RBC shows, she'd also lose the vote at credentials -- by an even wider margin.

Clinton can bluff all she want, but on Tuesday, when Barack Obama takes the stage in St. Paul, Minnesota having achieved the magic number -- and thereby having secured the Democratic nomination -- it will all be over. After that point, there will be no turning back.

The Democratic Party will have its nominee.

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