Posted by Jed Lewison on Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 2:51 PM Pacific

Before and (almost) after

Before Barack Obama's overseas trip:

• Rasmussen (7/16-18): 46% Obama, 46% McCain (tie)
• Gallup (7/16-7/18): 45% Obama, 43% McCain (+2 for Obama)

Near the end of Barack Obama's overseas trip:

• Rasmussen (7/23-25): 49% Obama, 43% McCain (+6 for Obama)
• Gallup (7/23-25): 48% Obama, 41% McCain (+7 for Obama)

There is a random element to these numbers -- polls are to some extent rolls of the dice. But given that both Gallup and Rasmussen have moved in the same directions by about the same amount at the same time, the movement is more likely to be real than if only one poll had shown movement.

I still don't think you can look at these numbers and use them to predict the election's outcome. However, you can look at them and say that Obama's trip was an unqualified success.

Now the challenge is to protect those gains, in part by going on offense -- mounting an aggressive push to convince independent voters that John McCain would be the third coming of Bush.