Posted by Jed Lewison on Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 11:18 PM Pacific

McCain = Bush = Status quo

Earlier today, I flagged a number from the most recent Pew Survey that alarmed me: 47% of independents said they believed McCain would take the country in a new direction, compared with 40% who said he would continue Bush's policies.

At dinner tonight, I was explaining this number to a friend who asked a simple but obvious question that I couldn't immediately answer: has this number gotten better or worse over the past few months?

It turns out that the answer to her question actually brings a bit of good news: although the June numbers are essentially unchanged from May, they are better than they were in March.

Here's the trend lines among independents only who say that McCain would:

  • March: 52% new direction, 37% continue Bush
     
  • May: 47% new direction, 40% continue Bush
     
  • June: 46% new direction, 40% continue Bush

So in March, among independents, McCain had a +15 on the question of whether he would continue Bush's policies or lead the country in a new direction.

But in June, he's only got a +6.

That's progress -- but I won't start feeling comfortable until the number is at least +10 in our direction.

McCain = Bush = Status quo

Earlier today, I flagged a number from the most recent Pew Survey that alarmed me: 47% of independents said they believed McCain would take the country in a new direction, compared with 40% who said he would continue Bush's policies.

At dinner tonight, I was explaining this number to a friend who asked a simple but obvious question that I couldn't immediately answer: has this number gotten better or worse over the past few months?

It turns out that the answer to her question actually brings a bit of good news: although the June numbers are essentially unchanged from May, they are better than they were in March.

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