McCain plans $400 million budget through November

Perhaps we are finally going to put a rest to the myth that Barack Obama has a fundraising advantage over John McCain. The mainstream seems to finally be taking note (h/t: Joe Sudbay):

The McCain campaign and Republican Party have nearly $95 million cash on hand combined for use in the presidential race, campaign manager Rick Davis said Thursday. ... Including the matching funds, he estimated the campaign would have a total $400 million budget through Election Day.

Last month, I wrote that McCain would raise about three-quarters of his campaign budget from private sources, including half of his post-convention budget. These numbers from Davis are pretty much in line with what I predicted, though even my estimate on total spending was a bit conservative.

What's going on here is simple: John McCain is exploiting loopholes in the public finance system, effectively breaking his pledge to only take public funds in the general election. In the process, he is validating Barack Obama's decision to skip the public finance system.

While Barack Obama could exploit the same loopholes as McCain, the problem is that those loopholes are dependent on the ability to raise money in $70,000 increments, and John McCain and the GOP have far more $70K donors than does Barack Obama, who relies far more heavily on small donors. So in order to stay competitive, Barack needed to exit the public finance system.

Unfortunately, the media narrative has been set and will be nearly impossible to unwind, though intelligent and observant reporters will soon realize they got the public finance story entirely wrong.

Regardless of what the media does or says, I'll make a prediction: from today until the campaign is over, John McCain will spend more money than Barack Obama.

Update: The McCain campaign says it is outspending Barack Obama 3:1 in TV ads.