Posted by Jed Lewison on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 9:45 AM Pacific

Republican veepstakes

First of all, I have to concede defeat: my prediction that McCain would pick his VP last week didn't come to pass. But Novak did float -- falsely -- that McCain would make the pick, so I'm going to take a partial victory.

I'm going to stick with my other prediction, that that McCain's pick will be Romney, but I'm beginning to think that Romney might be a better pick for McCain than I had originally thought. Nate Silver does a good job running through the impact a Romney pick would have on the electoral map and demographics. The short version is that Romney would be a smallish boost in a lot of states that matter (western, New England, and Michigan) and a liability in the south.

My take is that in a close election, Romney's liabilities in the south wouldn't make that much of a difference -- I can't imagine McCain would lose any southern states in a very close election, with the possible exception of Virginia. But in a close election, Romney would also provide a significant boost in states like Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Colorado.

The flipside is that if the election isn't close (in Obama's favor), Romney could give Obama the best chance for a huge electoral college. Not only would McCain still be losing the states Romney would help in, he'd also be more likely to lose southern states because Romney would be an additional drag.

At this point, it seems impossible that McCain would win by a large margin, so if a close election is the only kind of election he can win, Romney makes sense, despite his downside risk.

::: :::

Beyond the electoral map, Romney is a strong fundraiser and is also popular with the DC Republican establishment, who fear nothing more than a Huckabee pick. (I still think Huckabee would be McCain's best pick.)

Pawlenty might be a decent pick, but I'm not sure where he helps McCain outside Minnesota.

The other name you hear some of is Tom Ridge, but Ridge comes with a huge problem: he's pro-choice. In theory, you'd think that McCain would like a pro-choicer on the ticket to appeal to independent women. The problem is that in order to get away with putting a pro-choicer on the ticket, he'd have to really emphasize is pro-life position to conservatives, which would likely neutralize any impact of Ridge.

Moreover, the media coverage would be entirely fixated on their schism on abortion. Some of that would be positive, but ultimately it would highlight McCain's anti-choice views, and that's not what he wants to be talking about.

So I'm sticking with my Romney pick, though I'm thinking that he brings more to the table than I originally had thought.

Republican veepstakes

First of all, I have to concede defeat: my prediction that McCain would pick his VP last week didn't come to pass. But Novak did float -- falsely -- that McCain would make the pick, so I'm going to take a partial victory.

I'm going to stick with my other prediction, that that McCain's pick will be Romney, but I'm beginning to think that Romney might be a better pick for McCain than I had originally thought. Nate Silver does a good job running through the impact a Romney pick would have on the electoral map and demographics. The short version is that Romney would be a smallish boost in a lot of states that matter (western, New England, and Michigan) and a liability in the south.

My take is that in a close election, Romney's liabilities in the south wouldn't make that much of a difference -- I can't imagine McCain would lose any southern states in a very close election, with the possible exception of Virginia. But in a close election, Romney would also provide a significant boost in states like Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Colorado.

The Jed Report Home Page

© Jed Lewison