Posted by Jed Lewison on Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 2:37 AM Pacific

Stuff I should have blogged, no horserace edition

Don't hold me responsible if anything they say turns out to be wrong:

  • Alan Abramowitz cautions against getting hung up on daily swings in tracking polls.
  • He also thinks the idea that Obama has a problem with whites is hooey.
  • Abramowitz joins with Thomas Mann and Larry Sabato to challenge the idea that this election is a toss-up. (I think they make good points but ignore the enduring benefits of McCain's maverick image honed in 2000.)
  • Josh Marshall suggests taking a long-term view of Obama's trip, the fundamentals of which he thinks went very well. (He also challenges wingers who think the President's central focus should be on the military.)
  • Nate Silver offers an interesting model for interpreting how things might play out over the long-term. (The most important implication of his model is that the short-term horserace numbers can be very misleading.)

Related to all this, earlier this month I took a look at the road ahead in the campaign -- which is now 102 days away from finally being over. My short-take on the state of things: everything is going pretty well, except I think that that too many independents still think McCain could represent a change of direction for the country.

And in totally unrelated news, I just had to repimp this newspaper front page with McCain's VP Tim Pawlenty (am I allowed to change my Romney prediction?):

Stuff I should have blogged, no horserace edition

Don't hold me responsible if anything they say turns out to be wrong:

  • Alan Abramowitz cautions against getting hung up on daily swings in tracking polls.
  • He also thinks the idea that Obama has a problem with whites is hooey.
  • Abramowitz joins with Thomas Mann and Larry Sabato to challenge the idea that this election is a toss-up. (I think they make good points but ignore the enduring benefits of McCain's maverick image honed in 2000.)
  • Josh Marshall suggests taking a long-term view of Obama's trip, the fundamentals of which he thinks went very well. (He also challenges wingers who think the President's central focus should be on the military.)
  • Nate Silver offers an interesting model for interpreting how things might play out over the long-term. (The most important implication of his model is that the short-term horserace numbers can be very misleading.)

Related to all this, earlier this month I took a look at the road ahead in the campaign -- which is now 102 days away from finally being over. My short-take on the state of things: everything is going pretty well, except I think that that too many independents still think McCain could represent a change of direction for the country.

And in totally unrelated news, I just had to repimp this newspaper front page with McCain's VP Tim Pawlenty (am I allowed to change my Romney prediction?):

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