Without a plan, McCain's "timetable" is a misleading pander

I've been thinking a bit more about John McCain's seeming embrace of Barack Obama's and Nuri al-Maliki's withdrawal timetable. (His "I think it's a pretty good timetable" comment.)

On the one hand, it's nice to say "McCain endorses Obama's position on ending the Iraq war." And it's true, he did effectively make that endorsement. But he didn't say how he would accomplish the goal.

In fact, McCain is sending all sorts of mixed signals about whether or not he would do what he now says he supports. He is still refusing to suggest any specific plan to begin withdrawals. To meet the 16 month timetable, the new president will need to start implementing a withdrawal plan as soon as he takes office, and John McCain has not even come close to suggesting that he would actually do that.

So unless John McCain offers a plan on how he expects to meet the timetable, his words today really have no meaning -- except as a dishonest attempt to convince American voters he intends to end the war.

The more I think about it, the more it seems clear that McCain has delivered a tremendous political gift: he has boxed himself into either (a) walking back from his embrace of the timetable, in which case he'll be sticking by the Bush Administration's more vague time horizon language and admitting he either misspoke or misled voters today or (b) he can detail exactly how he intends to achieve a withdrawal in 16 months, which would mean he's validated Barack Obama's judgment.

This is a case worth pressing next week, both on the part of reporters and on the part of the Obama campaign. John McCain is doing his best to muddy the waters, but if anyone really believes that he wants to get of Iraq by 2010, I've got a bridge in Brooklyn.

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Below, I've posted McCain's statement from today along with a statement by Barack Obama from November of 2007.

The point of McCain's statement from today is that while he's sending a signal that he's willing to withdraw, he hasn't actually said how he would do it.

The point of the Obama statement is to show that while he does have a plan to withdraw in 16 months, his plan also takes into account conditions on the ground.

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Barack Obama, November 1, 2007 (New York Times):

 

Q. Following that up, what is your schedule for withdrawing forces from Iraq? How fast would these withdrawals be carried out? What time frame?  

A. Based on the conversations we’ve had internally as well as external reports, we believe that you can get one to two brigades out a month. At that pace, the forces would be out in approximately 16 months from the time that we began. That would be the time frame that I would be setting up. That also gives us time to make sure that we are strengthening the Iraqi forces. Obviously, I would prefer that we start this process now, but let’s assume that there are 100,000 troops when I get there, that means that we’re talking 14 to 15 months from now. [edit: he means that he would be taking office in 14 to 15 months]

According to all the reports, we should have been well along our way in getting the Iraqi security forces to be more functional. We then have another 16 months after that to adjust the withdrawal and make sure that we are withdrawing from those areas, based on advice from the military officers in the field, those places where we are secured, made progress and we’re not just willy-nilly removing troops, but we’re making a determination – in this region we see some stability. We’ve had cooperation from local tribal leaders and local officials, so we can afford to remove troops here. Here, we’ve still got problems, it’s going to take a little bit longer. Maybe those are the last areas to pull out.
 

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John McCain, July 25, 2008 (CNN):

 

BLITZER: Why do you think [Maliki] said that 16 months is basically a pretty good timetable?
 
MCCAIN: He said it's a pretty good timetable based on conditions on the ground. I think it's a pretty good timetable, as we should -- or horizons for withdrawal. But they have to be based on conditions on the ground. This success is very fragile. It's incredibly impressive, but very fragile. So we know, those of us who have been involved in it for many years, know that if we reverse this, by setting a date for withdrawal, all of the hard-won victory can be reversed.
 
We're not ready to do that. Too many brave young Americans and their families have sacrificed too much. But we will be out and the difference is we'll be out with victory and honor and not defeat. Sen. Obama has said there is a possibility under his plan we may have to go back. I guarantee you, after they withdraw under what we are doing, we'll never have to go back.