Posted by Jed Lewison on Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 5:25 PM Pacific

It's all good

This chart is an updated version of the poll tracking chart that I've been posting from time to time over the past couple of weeks. It shows the rolling 2-week average of polls, by day. For perspective, it also shows the Bush-Kerry race in light red (Bush) and light blue (Kerry).

Data: pollster.com. Chart: jedreport.com.

As you can see, since the primary ended, Barack Obama has enjoyed a durable -- though somewhat shrinking -- lead over John McCain. In short, the sky is not falling.

While it's true that John Kerry was polling slightly better than Obama at this point in 2004, remember that he'd already had his convention. And also note that McCain is behind where Bush was.

For all the talk of what a great month John McCain had, this chart shows that though he strengthened his position with his own base, he hasn't really hurt Barack Obama.

As with 2004, most undecided voters won't decide until after the conventions. I think that explains why the Obama campaign hasn't aired harsher ads on a national basis. Instead, they've focused on strengthening Obama's core image, and more importantly, building the ground game, as dday outlines in his outstanding diary over at Daily Kos.