Even though John McCain is managing a narrow but real lead in national polls, he's taking more risks with his campaign than is Barack Obama. Specifically, I'm talking about the honesty issue -- whereas Obama is hewing closely to the truth, McCain is spinning a fictional tale.
It's nothing new for a campaign to spin and sometimes get things wrong by recklessly deploying facts. But McCain is actually making things up. And that's a very risky strategy -- he can demonize the media all he wants, but if voters realize that he is lying to them, that alone could cost him the race.
I think the lesson from this is that McCain has no confidence in his ability to win this campaign on the merits. He must realize that while this new strategy of lying might not work, his old strategy could not have possibly worked.
Meanwhile, Barack Obama is basically saying the same things that he's been saying this whole campaign. Sure, he's tweaked a few things here and there, and he's now aggressively going after McCain's lies, but for the most part, he's still talking about the same things he's been talking about since day one. And I think that says that he not only has confidence in his message, but that he believes in it as well.
© Jed Lewison